Danish Intelligence sees risk of Russian attacks on NATO member states

A Growing Vulnerability Along Western Borders

Russia faces a low but steadily growing risk of launching a limited military attack or intensified hybrid operations against a NATO member state in the coming months.

Published on September 24, 2026, the assessment from the Danish Defense Intelligence Service indicates that Moscow could execute smaller-scale actions alongside its ongoing war in Ukraine. The intent: divide the military alliance and weaken logistics supporting Kyiv.

Tactics of Disguised Strikes and Alliance Fracturing

According to the intelligence evaluation, the rising frequency of Russian attacks will carry severe consequences.

Thomas Ahrenkiel, head of Danish intelligence, stated during a press briefing covered by Reuters and the Financial Times that potential actions include long-range drone or missile strikes against infrastructure supporting Ukraine. These could run alongside disguised operations utilizing Ukrainian-manufactured drones.

Ahrenkiel noted that a military strike against a NATO ally could occur under the pretext of defending Russian minorities. The primary objective of such an operation would not be territorial conquest, but rather fracturing the unity of the military alliance.

Jeppe Bruus, the Danish defense minister, stated that Moscow is targeting support for Ukraine because the Kremlin is under severe pressure and failing to achieve its strategic goals.

Accelerating Timelines Past Previous Estimates

Previous Western intelligence estimates generally projected that Russia would not pose a direct conventional threat to NATO until three to five years after the conclusion of the Ukrainian conflict.

However, the Danish service emphasizes that the situation is far more urgent. Moscow does not need to wait for active combat to end before mounting a limited strike.

While preparing a localized conflict requires roughly six months, a regional conflict takes two years, and a comprehensive European war demands five years of troop consolidation, smaller-scale or hybrid escalation could materialize immediately.

Friction Points and Maritime Encounters

This assessment follows a series of friction points between Russian and Western forces.

The Danish military reported that an active Russian frigate fired two flare rockets last week toward a Danish military helicopter that had been dispatched to photograph the vessel. One flare narrowly missed the aircraft.

Additional recent precedents include a thwarted drone attack targeting the Leipzig airport in Germany. Meanwhile, Moscow has consistently denied any involvement in hybrid warfare, sabotage operations inside NATO territory, or preparations for direct confrontation.