Deadly Disease Outbreak Map Identifies Highly Vulnerable Regions Worldwide – Earth.com

A new global modeling study reveals that approximately 9.3 percent of the world’s land area is highly vulnerable to the risk of dangerous disease outbreaks, with hotspots concentrated in Latin America and Oceania where communities face mounting pressure from climate change and land development.

The research, led by Angela Fanelli, a veterinary epidemiologist at the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC), used machine learning and satellite data to map epidemic-prone diseases across nearly every country on Earth. The model identified that 6.3 percent of global land area falls into the high-risk category, with an additional 3 percent classified as very high risk.

According to the findings, roughly 20 percent of the global population lives in medium-risk areas, while only 3 percent inhabit zones classified as high or very high risk for disease outbreaks. The study emphasizes that most of the diseases tracked in the model are zoonotic, meaning they originate in animals and can spread to humans through direct contact or environmental exposure.

One overview cited in the research estimates that around three-quarters of emerging infectious diseases in humans worldwide originate in animals. The report highlights how human expansion into forests, wildlife markets, and natural habitats increases the likelihood of spillover events—the moment a virus jumps from animals to people—particularly when such encroachment brings humans and wildlife into closer contact.

Climate change is also identified as a key driver in shifting disease risk patterns. Warming temperatures and altered precipitation regimes are changing where animals, insects, and viruses can survive and thrive, thereby reshaping the geographic distribution of infectious disease threats over time.

The research further notes that the regions identified as most vulnerable often lack sufficient resources to detect, report, and contain outbreaks early, compounding the risk posed by environmental and ecological changes. These findings aim to support targeted preparedness and response strategies in areas where health systems may be least equipped to handle emerging threats.