Deficit Danger Zone: Can a Major Overhaul Save the Nation’s Finances
- The Ministry of Strategy and Finance's '2024-2028 National Fiscal Management Plan' reveals a shocking projection: the national deficit debt is expected to approach 900 trillion won next year...
- The deficit debt next year, initially expected to be 802 trillion won, is now expected to increase by more than 10% to 883.4 trillion won.
- The number of people receiving the four major public pensions (national pension, civil servant pension, private school pension, military pension) is increasing rapidly, but there are not enough...
National Deficit Debt Expected to Exceed 1,000 Trillion Won in Three Years
The Ministry of Strategy and Finance’s ‘2024-2028 National Fiscal Management Plan’ reveals a shocking projection: the national deficit debt is expected to approach 900 trillion won next year and exceed 1,000 trillion won in three years. Deficit debt, which refers to money borrowed when the national treasury is insufficient, is a pressing concern. National bonds are a representative example of deficit debt, and if tax revenues are sufficient, it can be reduced by paying them off gradually. However, the current situation is the opposite, with the speed of debt increase being particularly alarming.
The deficit debt next year, initially expected to be 802 trillion won, is now expected to increase by more than 10% to 883.4 trillion won. By 2027, it is projected to reach a staggering 1,240 trillion won. The proportion of deficit debt among the total national debt (1,277 trillion won) will also continue to increase after exceeding 70% next year. The low birth rate and aging population are significant contributors to the expansion of deficit debt.
The number of people receiving the four major public pensions (national pension, civil servant pension, private school pension, military pension) is increasing rapidly, but there are not enough people to support them, resulting in the need for increased taxes. Public pension expenditures are expected to exceed 100 trillion won in 2027, up from 85.4 trillion won next year. The amount of expenditures next year alone has increased by more than 10% compared to this year, and is expected to increase by more than 8% every year for the next five years. This growth rate is 2.7 times faster than the government’s fiscal expenditure growth rate, which is the size of the national budget.
Interest expenditures are also a significant burden, with treasury bond interest expected to increase by an annual average of 10% from 25.5 trillion won next year to 32.7 trillion won in 2028. The proportion of mandatory spending in the budget has far exceeded 50%, and is expected to reach 80% in the long term. This means that regardless of budget growth, there is limited room for discretionary spending. A vicious cycle of borrowing more will repeat itself unless changes are made.
National pension reform is a crucial step in changing the course of government budget management. The current system, which has remained largely unchanged for decades, must be revised to reflect the changing values, population, and industrial structure. It is essential to ensure that young people are not burdened with a future of debt, and that they have a fair chance to contribute to the national pension and health insurance systems.
