Donald Clarke’s Predictions for Today’s Nominations

The nominations for the 2026 ‌ Oscars will, ‌when they arrive at lunchtime on Thursday, certainly have an Irish presence.

It involves no ‍spoiler ⁢too reveal that⁣ Jessie Buckley, searing in ⁢ Hamnet, is runaway favorite for​ best ⁤actress.⁣ Paul Mescal, her costar, will probably sneak into the‌ supporting-actor race. Two Irish titles, ⁣Retirement Plan⁢ and ​Éiru, are on‍ the shortlist of 15, announced before Christmas, for best⁤ animated short ⁣film.

Andrew Scott ⁤ has an outside chance‍ of a supporting-actor nod⁣ for his turn as richard Rodgers in the Irish coproduction Blue ​Moon. Richard Baneham, from Tallaght, will surely be again up in the visual-effects category for his work on the Avatar sequence. ⁤The producers Ed Guiney and⁢ Andrew ⁢Lowe, of Whatever ‌the total, Sinners and‌ One Battle After Another ⁢will surely be at the top of this ‍year’s nomination table. Frankenstein and‌ Hamnet look likely to come in second and third, with ⁣about⁣ 12 for the horror epic and 10 for the ⁢bereavement saga.

It is also worth pondering how many films not​ in English⁢ will make ​it into the ⁢best-picture category. As in 2024, three such titles⁤ could land, so confirming a shift towards ⁢a more⁢ internationally inclined‍ electorate.⁣

The Oscars take place in Hollywood on Sunday, March 15th. ​Here are 14 intriguing categories out of the⁢ full 24. All entries are listed in descending order ‌of likely inclusion.

Donald ​Clarke’s academy Award nomination predictions

Best picture

• One Battle ⁣after another
• Sinners
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• Frankenstein
• Sentimental Value
• The Secret Agent
• It ‌Was​ Just an Accident
• Train Dreams
• Bugonia

The top⁢ six​ seem certain.waiting just outside the 10 are three commercial hits: wicked: For Good, weapons

You could reasonably argue⁣ that only Anderson and ‍Coogler are safe. Don’t rule out Josh Safdie ‍for the much-admired Marty Supreme. Panahi,Iranian winner of ​the Palme d’Or,gets the ⁤nod for It Was Just an accident, as the directors’ branch of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has always been more open⁣ to ⁣colleagues from outside the United States.⁢

Best‍ actress

• Jessie ‍Buckley, ⁢Hamnet
• Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
• Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
• Emma Stone, Bugonia
• Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

Four ​nailed down. Then it’s a toss-up between the veteran hudson and the newcomer Chase‌ Infiniti for One Battle After Another.Buckley can⁢ probably reserve a place on the mantelpiece already, but byrne, a popular actor, has won with ⁢a clutter of critics’ groups. Then again, this will probably be the only nomination for her‍ film.

Best actor

• Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
• Leonardo‍ DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
• Wagner maura, The Secret Agent
• Michael B Jordan, Sinners
• Ethan⁢ Hawke, Blue Moon

Maura missed​ with ​the Bafta longlist, but his win at the Golden Globes confirms growing strength. Chalamet has been working the publicity circuit hard and will probably end up in a head to head with DiCaprio.This⁤ could well be the five. Hawke was ​liked in Blue Moon, and he does now count as a veteran.

Best supporting actress

• Teyana⁤ Tayl
  • Bugonia
  • Frankenstein

  One Battle After ​another,as a boss front-runner,will compete in every big category,but Hamnet has an undeniably “writerly” quality. If anything breaks this five it might be a rogue non-English-language title such as Park Chan-wook’s No ‍Other Choice.

  Best original screenplay

  

  • Sinners
  • Sentimental Value
  • Marty Supreme
  • It Was​ Just an Accident
  • Sorry, Baby

  Maybe a sentimental pick here for Eva Victor’s ingenious, moving​ Sorry, Baby. Kleber Mendonça Filho’s The Secret⁢ Agent, a best-picture probable, is just as likely.

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