Earth Models: Predicting the Future, Not Themselves
- Experts warn that reductions in funding for Earth systems modeling could lead to a decline in US scientific leadership, potentially shifting expertise overseas.
- Dessler emphasized that losing the expertise of scientists working in these institutions would be detrimental to maintaining this position.
- Scientists involved in the E3SM (Earth Exascale Earth System Model) project aim to understand long-term changes to Earth's conditions and the variations within those changes - for example,...
Potential Funding Cuts Threaten US Leadership in Earth Systems Modeling
Table of Contents
Last updated: September 1, 2024, 5:33 AM PDT
The Risk of Losing expertise
Experts warn that reductions in funding for Earth systems modeling could lead to a decline in US scientific leadership, potentially shifting expertise overseas. Andrew dessler, a professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M University, stated that cuts could allow countries like China to close the gap with the US, which currently boasts research universities and government labs “the envy of the world.”
Dessler emphasized that losing the expertise of scientists working in these institutions would be detrimental to maintaining this position.
What is Earth Systems Modeling?
Scientists involved in the E3SM (Earth Exascale Earth System Model) project aim to understand long-term changes to Earth’s conditions and the variations within those changes – for example, predicting a general warming trend while acknowledging the possibility of localized extreme cold events, like those experienced in Colorado.The ultimate goal is to create a “digital twin” of the planet, a highly accurate model reflecting Earth’s complex systems.
Developing even the current stage of the model has been a decade-long process involving extensive software development and refinement. According to an earth system scientist at NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research), Lawrence, the models are considerable in terms of code volume.
E3SM and its Predecessor
The E3SM builds upon the foundation of the Community Earth System Model, a project previously led by Lawrence. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, which currently leads the E3SM development, declined to comment on the project, citing an inability to offer interviews at this time, according to spokesperson jeremy Thomas.
implications of Reduced Funding
The potential consequences of funding cuts extend beyond simply slowing down research. Experts suggest that modeling capabilities could be relocated to other countries, some scientific inquiries may never be pursued, and valuable expertise could be lost, impacting the US’s ability to accurately predict and respond to climate change and other environmental challenges.