At the business Record Economic Forecast on Jan. 20, moderator Chris Conetzkey asked each panelist to share one thing about the economy that makes them feel bearish and one thing they feel bullish about.
Here’s what they said. Their responses have been lightly edited for clarity and length.
Robin Anderson, state chief economist and division administrator, research and policy division, Iowa Department of Revenue
Bearish: “What’s happening with long-term interest rates and what are the risks to seeing long-term interest rates rise for communities that rely on things like prime loan rates, auto loan rates, mortgage rates, and if we see long-term interest rates rise and move in the opposite direction to short-term interest rates, what’s that going to do to the Main street economy?”
bullish: “I do feel optimistic about productivity. … It is showing up in the nationwide economic data, and productivity picking up is a good thing, because that means the economy can grow without inflationary forces.”
debi Durham, director, Iowa Finance Authority and the Economic Growth Authority
Bearish: “It’s still population. That is, I think, one of the biggest challenges we have, but it’s not just Iowa, it’s national. And I do believe that China is majorly overestimating how many people they actually have. So when you think about that, I think that’s a real problem for the world.”
Bullish: “Simultaneously occurring, the bullish part of me is [population is] where we have to focus as we’re not going to have people coming in after you see the retirees leave in record numbers. We’re focusing on that whole industry 4.0 and automation so that we can still increase wealth by growing productivity, so for me, that productivity factor is the luminous spot.”
Amy Friedrich, president of benefits and protection, Principal Financial Group
“I’m going to come back to the point I opened up with, which was certainty. I feel like we’re kind of shooting ourselves in our own foot on some of the issues related to things that can feel a bit more certain. So I worry that, especially for small and mid-size businesses [as] there’s as many decisions made off of sentiment as they are made off of spreadsheets. And the smaller the business, the more you end up seeing that dynamic play out. If Iowa can grab the pieces that are certain, make sure we’ve got clear indications of what that plan is and how we’re going to fund those
Okay, here’s an adversarial research breakdown of the provided text, adhering to the strict instructions. I will focus on identifying potential claims for verification and outlining a search strategy.I will not rewrite or paraphrase the text itself.
Overall Assessment:
The text presents economic outlooks (bullish and bearish) from two individuals – one focused on broader market trends and the other, Jeff Lorenzen (CEO of American Equity), on regional (Iowa/Midwest) and financial institution-specific factors. The statements are largely predictions and opinions, but they are based on observed trends and economic indicators. Thus, verification will focus on the underlying data supporting those opinions, rather than the opinions themselves being “true” or “false.” The timeframe mentioned (next 5-10 years) is crucial for research.
Phase 1: Adversarial Research & Freshness Check
Here’s a breakdown of claims to verify, categorized by speaker, and a proposed research approach. I’ll also note the inherent difficulty in verifying predictions.
I. First Speaker (Unnamed – Market/Asset Performance)
* Claim 1: “The next five or 10 years are certainly not going to perform the last five or 10 years as far as where I strongly believe the performance of financial assets are going to be.”
* Verification Difficulty: High. This is a broad prediction. Verification requires looking at ancient performance of various asset classes (stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities) over the past 5-10 years and then comparing that to current economic forecasts for the next 5-10 years. It’s about comparing past trends to projected trends.
* Research Keywords: “financial asset class performance outlook,” “market forecast 5 year,” “market forecast 10 year,” “historical asset class returns,” “economic projections [year range – e.g., 2024-2034]”, “long-term investment outlook.”
* Authoritative Sources: Federal Reserve reports, IMF World Economic Outlook, World Bank reports, reports from major investment banks (Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley – with caution, recognizing potential bias), Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Times, academic economic research papers (via Google Scholar).
* Claim 2: “If you have wealth to basically spend a little of that down. You make 20% of the market, you take 2% or 3% of that out…” (Implies a strategy of reducing exposure to the market).
* Verification Difficulty: moderate. This is a strategy suggestion. Verification involves examining current market conditions and whether a slight reduction in exposure is considered prudent by financial analysts.
* Research Keywords: “market correction risk,” “portfolio rebalancing strategies,” “asset allocation advice,” ”reducing market exposure,” “cash allocation strategies.”
* Authoritative Sources: Same as Claim 1, plus financial advisor publications (e.g., Kiplinger’s, Barron’s), investment research firms (e.g.,Morningstar).
II. Second Speaker (Bullish – Ag economy/Regional Economy)
* Claim 1: “The ag economy and the corollaries, the transportation and logistics economy, both in the Midwest and nationally, have frankly just been so bad for the last few years, we are definitely seeing some greenshoots there. We’re seeing better performance. We’re seeing fuller trucks, better routes, more profitable routes.”
* Verification Difficulty: Moderate.This is about recent trends.
* Research Keywords: “agricultural economic conditions Midwest,” “trucking industry performance,” “logistics industry trends,” “freight rates,” “farm income data,” “agricultural commodity prices.”
* Authoritative Sources: USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) reports, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data, Department of Transportation statistics, American Trucking Associations (ATA) reports, industry publications (e.g., Farm Journal, Transport Topics).
* Claim 2: “I’m slightly bullish on the regional economy, just because it does feel like we’re bouncing on the bottom and we might actually get some growth this year, so that’s actually a real positive, and Iowa needs it.”
* Verification Difficulty: Moderate. Requires checking Iowa-specific economic indicators.
* Research Keywords: “Iowa economic outlook,” “Iowa GDP growth,” “Iowa unemployment rate,” “Iowa business confidence index.”
* Authoritative Sources: Iowa Economic Development authority, Iowa Bureau of Labour Statistics, University of Iowa economic research, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (regional data).
III. Jeff Lorenzen (CEO, American Equity)
* Claim 1: “I think from the weakness side it’s going to be around skilled labor. I still believe that labor availability and the
