Mexico is grappling with the aftermath of a major security operation that resulted in the death of Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho,” leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). The operation, which culminated on , has triggered a wave of violence across the country, prompting security alerts and disrupting daily life in several states.
Mexican security forces killed El Mencho in a shootout in Tapalpa, Jalisco, the cartel’s stronghold. He was critically wounded during the clash and died while being transported to Mexico City, according to official reports. The United States had a $15 million bounty on his head. The operation involved a complex strategy, including a ground assault and aerial support, as detailed in reports from La Nación.
The immediate response to El Mencho’s death was widespread and dramatic. Gunmen affiliated with CJNG blocked highways, torched vehicles – including cars and buses – and set businesses ablaze in over 20 states, including Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Nayarit, Guanajuato, and Tamaulipas. The violence spread rapidly, plunging much of Mexico into chaos. , saw Guadalajara, the capital of Jalisco and a host city for upcoming FIFA World Cup matches, largely deserted as residents sheltered in place.
Authorities reported at least 62 people killed in the initial wave of violence, including 25 members of the National Guard. Around 70 individuals were arrested across seven states, according to Mexican Security Minister Omar Garcia Harfuch. The minister also reported 27 attacks against authorities in Jalisco alone.
The U.S. State Department issued a security warning on , advising Americans in several Mexican states to “shelter in place.” While the warning was later relaxed for some areas, it underscored the severity of the situation. The response from Washington included a statement from former President Donald Trump, urging the Mexican government to “step up their effort on Cartels and Drugs!”
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo has called for calm and stated that “tranquility” has been restored, while also emphasizing coordination with state governments. The Secretariat of National Defence reported that the operation against El Mencho was a success, and officials expressed confidence in their ability to maintain order. A particularly poignant moment was captured when the Secretary of Defence became visibly emotional while remembering the National Guard members who lost their lives during the operation, as reported by BBC.
However, analysts warn that the immediate fallout is likely just the beginning. The death of El Mencho leaves a power vacuum within CJNG, and a struggle for control is anticipated. According to Anthony Placido, former head of intelligence for the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, the current display of violence could continue for several days or weeks, after which internal and external warfare within the cartel is likely to intensify. CJNG demonstrated its capacity for widespread disruption in 2015, even using a rocket-propelled grenade to down a Mexican army helicopter after a previous attempt to capture Oseguera Cervantes.
The lack of a clear successor to El Mencho further complicates the situation. Experts suggest that remaining leaders may dispute control, potentially leading to fragmentation and increased violence. Analysts believe that while the initial wave of retaliatory attacks may subside, the underlying instability will persist.
Security experts are advising caution for travelers to Mexico. While resort areas have been “relatively spared from the impact,” according to Mike Ballard, director of intelligence at Global Guardian, reconsidering travel plans to cities like Puerto Vallarta and Cancun is advisable in the short term. Former CIA officer Jason Hanson has issued a stark warning: “Do not go to Mexico,” citing the country’s “way too volatile” and “way too dangerous” security situation.
The U.S. Office of Counterterrorism has congratulated Mexico on El Mencho’s death, recognizing the significance of removing a key leader of a powerful criminal organization. However, the long-term implications of this event remain uncertain, and the Mexican government faces a significant challenge in maintaining security and preventing further escalation of violence. The situation is being closely monitored by international observers, particularly given Mexico’s role as a host nation for the FIFA World Cup.
