Elderly Population Growth: 50% Increase Explained
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Bergamo Province Faces Dramatic Demographic Shift: aging Population and Youth Decline
New data from Istat, analyzed by the CISL welfare department, projects a meaningful increase in the elderly population and a decrease in the working-age population in the Province of Bergamo, Italy, over the next 25 years. This shift poses challenges for social services, healthcare, and economic stability.
The Aging Trend: A province-Wide Overview
The Province of Bergamo is bracing for a ample demographic shift. According to Istat estimates developed by the CISL welfare department, the elderly population (65+) is projected to increase by nearly 50% in the next 25 years. Simultaneously,the population between 0 and 64 years old is expected to decrease by 18% (CISL Lombardia, 2024). This trend will strain existing resources and necessitate innovative solutions to support an aging population.
The impact won’t be uniform across the province. While the city of Bergamo is projected to experience a 9% overall population growth, with a 12% increase in the 0-14 age group and a 35% increase in the elderly population, smaller centers face more drastic changes.
| Municipality | Projected Population Change (2024-2050) | Projected Change in 0-64 Age Group (%) | Projected Change in 65+ Age Group (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bergamo (City) | +9% | +12% | +35% |
| Romano di lombardia | – | -10% | +70% |
| Albino | – | -33% | + |
| Costa Volpino | – | -43% | + |
Depopulation of Mountain Valleys
The trend is particularly pronounced in the province’s mountain valleys, where depopulation is accelerating.the number of residents will increase, especially among the elderly and those requiring care, while the active working population (15-64 years) is expected to decline from 70% today to 55% by 2050 (CIS