Emirates Resumes Flights as Gulf Airspace Reopens After Iran Conflict Disruption

After nearly a week of disrupted travel and airspace closures, Emirates announced it was resuming operations, offering relief to hundreds of thousands of passengers worldwide. The restart comes amid the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran, which prompted widespread flight cancellations and reroutings.

The news is particularly welcome for the UK’s Foreign Office, which has been working to organize rescue flights for British nationals stranded in the Middle East. A second government-chartered flight landed at Gatwick Airport on Saturday, departing from Muscat, Oman, following a 24-hour delay to the first flight which landed at Stansted Airport on Friday morning due to “technical issues.” A government minister stated that commercial flights remain “by far the most likely and the most rapid” routes for citizens to return home.

Emirates plans to operate 11 daily flights to five British airports by Saturday and will operate to 60% of its full network, serving 83 destinations including seven in the US and 22 daily flights to India. Etihad has also begun operating limited flights from Abu Dhabi, primarily to London Heathrow, Manchester, and several European cities, following “extensive safety and security assessments.”

The partial return of service struggles to dispel the concerns raised by a week of uncertainty, during which the future of global aviation routes was questioned. Before the crisis, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha had established themselves as crucial hubs for international travel, connecting Asia, Africa, Europe, and the Americas. Approximately 300,000 people passed through these hubs daily, with two-thirds continuing on connecting flights.

The closure of airspace following the US-Israeli bombing of Iran and subsequent retaliatory strikes created a ripple effect across continents. While some travelers were simply inconvenienced, many found themselves stranded, with short transfers turning into extended waits.

The sheer volume of traffic meant that a swift resumption of Gulf carrier operations was essential for governments seeking to bring their citizens home. With only a partial reopening of UAE airspace, Etihad followed Emirates in restarting limited services, focused on repatriation efforts. Qatar’s airspace, however, remains fully closed.

According to aviation analyst John Grant, approximately 70% of passengers passing through Abu Dhabi’s Zayed airport are typically in transit. A greater proportion, 55%, of Dubai’s 175,000 daily passengers are also connecting to onward flights. Dubai has seen a boom in tourism, with many travelers utilizing the city as a stopover destination.

Aviation analyst Andrew Charlton suggests that travel expectations will likely shift as a result of the disruptions. “Passengers are going to have to found other ways to get around, and destination selections are going to be changed,” he said.

The crisis could significantly impact tourism in the region. Oxford Economics estimates a short conflict could lead to an 11% drop in visitors to the Middle East this year, resulting in a $34 billion (£25 billion) loss in spending.

However, alternative routes may not be straightforward. On routes from Australia to the UK, flights via Gulf hubs significantly outnumber those offered by airlines such as Thai, Cathay Pacific, or Singapore Airlines. The geographical advantage of the Gulf region, with two-thirds of the world’s population within an eight-hour flight, has underpinned its success as a travel hub.

The Middle East airlines have played a key role in the growth of their respective capitals as international players, investing heavily in rebranding efforts and acquiring the latest fuel-efficient aircraft. Emirates, in particular, has leveraged the Airbus A380 superjumbo to facilitate enormous growth, offering luxurious amenities such as shower-spas in first class and personal minibars in business class. Etihad has also sought to elevate the travel experience with “hotel suite” accommodations including full double-beds.

Emirates president Tim Clark recently noted that the airline’s profits have “gone up – almost nuclear” in the five years since the COVID-19 pandemic. While the current conflict poses challenges, the airline’s resilience suggests a potential return to growth.

The conflict also raises concerns about the broader economic impact, including a potential oil price shock. The price of Brent crude soared past $90 on Friday, up from $72.50 before the war, due to disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of the world’s oil flows. Rising fuel prices could lead to downgraded credit ratings for airlines and higher fares for passengers.

Charlton suggests that Istanbul could benefit from continued disruptions to Gulf routes, and other airlines may offer alternatives. However, he believes Emirates will likely regain its market share, offering competitive fares to attract passengers back to its network.