The ⁣Escalating Energy War

Three ⁣winters of⁤ war have underscored the centrality of ⁣energy to the‌ Russia-Ukraine conflict. Since the full-scale⁤ invasion began in February 2022, Russia has systematically targeted Ukraine’s electricity⁣ and​ gas ⁣infrastructure, aiming ‌to weaken Ukrainian resistance and disrupt the country’s operations. Ukraine is now responding by ​directly attacking Russia’s oil industry.

Beginning in August 2024, Ukraine has launched ‍approximately thirty attacks on refineries and fuel depots‍ within Russia‍ and in occupied territories, including Crimea. Reuters reported in March 2024 that these strikes are already causing localized‍ fuel ⁢shortages, evidenced by long⁢ lines at gas stations and rising⁣ gasoline‍ prices. The dual goals ‍are to impact Russian‌ public sentiment and,crucially,to diminish Russia’s financial resources for the ⁣war.

EU’s Push for Energy Independence

The⁣ European Union ⁤is proceeding⁤ with its plan to completely phase ⁢out ⁣imports of ‌Russian gas by the end of 2027. This initiative is supported ⁣by the united ⁢States, which⁤ views ​it as an possibility to expand its exports of liquefied natural gas​ (LNG) to Europe. Reuters detailed in March 2024 that the⁢ EU is diversifying its energy sources, ​including ⁣increased LNG ‍imports ⁤from the US and other suppliers.

However, Russia’s​ attacks on‍ Ukrainian energy production serve as a ​reminder that European energy⁢ dependence, despite sanctions, remains a notable tool for Moscow’s influence. Thierry Bros, ⁢a‌ prominent energy analyst, warned on France24 in May 2024 that⁤ “there‍ will ‌be enough gas,” implying a continued, albeit‍ altered, level of Russian leverage.

Impact⁣ on Russian Oil Production‍ and⁤ Revenue

The Ukrainian strikes are demonstrably⁣ impacting Russian oil refining capacity.‍ ⁣ While​ precise figures are tough to verify‍ due to limited access and data control, estimates suggest a significant reduction ⁣in Russia’s refining output. ⁣ Bloomberg ​reported in April