Earthquake Rattles Erzincan, Sparking Debate Among Experts
Erzincan, a city in eastern Turkey, experienced a 4.9 magnitude earthquake on the anniversary of the devastating Kahramanmaraş earthquakes. While initial reports indicate no immediate damage or casualties, the event has drawn attention from seismologists, with differing opinions emerging regarding its significance.
“Earthquake in a Critical Location”
Professor Dr. Naci Görür, a prominent seismologist, stated the earthquake occurred in the Kemah-Hakbilir region of Erzincan, within the zone of the Karaca Fault. “The earthquake is in a critical location,” Görür commented. “We are expecting an earthquake on the 7th segment of the North Anatolian Fault (KAF), and this earthquake is close to that segment.”
“Not a Harbinger of a Major Earthquake”
However, Professor Dr. Osman Bektaş offered a contrasting view. He described the earthquake as a very shallow tremor occurring on the eastern end of the Erzincan segment of the North Anatolian Fault, specifically in the Refahiye area. “It should not be considered a harbinger of a major earthquake,” Bektaş stated.
Erzincan is situated within a highly seismically active region of Eastern Anatolia. According to a study published by Springer, the Erzincan Basin is one of the most actively deforming geological features in the area. The region has a history of large, devastating earthquakes, including a magnitude 7.9 earthquake in 1939 and a magnitude 6.8 earthquake in 1992, which resulted in over 33,000 and 600 fatalities, respectively.
The recent tremor follows warnings from seismologists about the possibility of aftershocks in the region, as reported by turkeyus.com following a 6.7 magnitude earthquake in Erzincan. Experts have urged residents to remain vigilant and take necessary precautions, given the area’s known seismic activity.
VolcanoDiscovery.com data indicates that, on average, approximately 439 earthquakes occur in or near Erzincan each year, based on records from the past 54 years and an archive dating back to 1900. While most are minor, the region has experienced at least two earthquakes exceeding magnitude 7 since 1900, suggesting the potential for larger events, though these occur infrequently.
Think Hazard classifies the earthquake hazard level in Erzincan as high, indicating a greater than 20% chance of potentially damaging earthquake shaking within the next 50 years. This underscores the importance of considering earthquake impacts in all phases of planning and development within the region.
The differing opinions of Görür and Bektaş highlight the complexities of earthquake prediction and risk assessment. While Görür suggests the recent tremor could be a precursor to a larger event on the North Anatolian Fault, Bektaş cautions against interpreting it as such. Further monitoring and analysis will be crucial in understanding the potential implications of this earthquake and assessing the region’s ongoing seismic risk.
A report from MDPI questions whether Erzincan is prepared for another severe earthquake, emphasizing the need to examine structural damage patterns from previous earthquakes both in Erzincan and globally. The city’s location on the North Anatolian Fault Zone necessitates ongoing evaluation of building codes and infrastructure resilience.
