Russia’s Escalating Hybrid Warfare Tactics in Northern Europe
Authorities across Europe are increasingly concerned about a surge in what they describe as “hybrid warfare” activities linked to Russia, ranging from undersea cable sabotage to disinformation campaigns and targeted harassment. The incidents, occurring particularly in Finland and Estonia, are prompting heightened vigilance and a coordinated response from European security agencies.
The recent focus has been on damage to critical undersea infrastructure. Authorities are investigating after an oil tanker reportedly cut undersea cables, according to reports. This follows a series of incidents in the Baltic Sea, including damage to two cables in recent days. The European Union has pointed to Russia as a likely perpetrator in the cable damage off the coast of Finland, .
Finnish police have seized a vessel suspected of sabotaging an undersea telecoms cable. The ship, which reportedly dragged its anchor before the damage occurred, is believed to be linked to the incident. Two crew members have been arrested in connection with the sabotage. The vessel had been sailing from Russia, according to Finnish authorities.
These incidents are occurring against a backdrop of broader Russian “shadow warfare” against the West, as described by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). This involves a range of activities designed to destabilize and undermine European nations without triggering a direct military confrontation.
Estonia has been particularly proactive in attributing blame for these hybrid attacks. Mart Luik, who established the ‘Slava Ukrainia’ restaurant in Tallinn to support those displaced by the war in Ukraine, experienced this firsthand when his restaurant was deliberately set on fire in January of last year. CCTV footage identified two Moldovan nationals, one of whom was linked to Russian military intelligence (GRU). The individual, Ivan Chihail, had reportedly received prior tasks and cryptocurrency payments for similar attacks.
The investigation, involving law enforcement agencies from Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Italy, resulted in convictions. This willingness to publicly attribute blame, according to Estonian Minister of Defence Hanno Pevkur, is a deliberate strategy. “When there is a reason to say it out loud, then we are saying that out loud,” Pevkur stated. “We have no reason to hide it. When you have proof and when you have the evidence, then I believe It’s right to say to your citizens that This represents the hybrid warfare.”
Beyond arson and cable sabotage, Estonia has seen instances of cyberattacks and vandalism targeting individuals critical of the Kremlin. These efforts are intended to undermine the ambiguity inherent in hybrid warfare, making it more difficult for perpetrators to deny responsibility.
However, attributing blame remains a challenge across Europe. While numerous countries have reported an increase in hybrid attacks, evidence is often lacking, leading to accusations of exaggeration. Recent reports of drone sightings across Europe, including near airports and air bases, illustrate this issue. Despite airspace closures and even the Dutch military opening fire on a suspected drone, no concrete evidence has been released to confirm the incidents.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin dismissed suggestions of Russian involvement in the drone activity, offering a dismissive response.
Other examples of Russian activity include a cyber campaign in Romania that compromised border crossing cameras, allowing observers to track military supplies destined for Ukraine. This campaign was described as “Russian-state sponsored” in a joint advisory from approximately 20 western security agencies. In Norway, pro-Russian cyber attackers opened a dam, releasing a significant volume of water. And in Poland, an explosion on a train line used to transport aid to Ukraine was described as an act of sabotage, with Poland pointing towards Russia.
Finland has also experienced increased GPS interference, with incidents rising from a few hundred to 2,800 in . On New Year’s Eve, authorities detained a ship and its crew after another undersea cable was severed in the Gulf of Finland.
Helsinki is home to the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats, where Director Dr. Teija Tiilikainen believes the current situation, while not constituting outright war, represents “a serious conflict.” She emphasized the intention to “weaken us, our unity, our possibilities to protect our societies, our democracy, our democratic values.”
Preparations for potential conflict, both conventional and unconventional, are underway in Finland. Citizens are preparing to take on roles in defense and infrastructure protection. Jarmo Lindberg, a retired general and current member of parliament, acknowledged the growing concern. “We know it’s Russia who’s pushing the people across the border, and we know that it’s Russia who’s jamming the GPS signal,” he said. “We’re not at war, but it’s not peace either. It’s something in between.”
A special report on hybrid warfare by Conor Wilson and producer Isabel Perceval will be broadcast on the edition of Prime Time, on RTÉ One and the RTÉ Player.
