EUR/USD surges to a 45-month high as teh dollar weakens, creating a dynamic situation for traders. The euro’s gains are fueled by broad dollar softness, but the U.S. labor market data, released today, takes center stage. Federal Reserve officials hint at a potential shift, with some considering a rate cut to prioritize job market health. The role of upcoming jobless claims will substantially influence the EUR/USD’s immediate direction,which is why every move matters. The Federal Reserve’s evolving job role is under the microscope. Investors closely watch as potential catalysts for thes shifts. From policy shifts to data points, it’s critical for financial news, all of which we cover at News Directory 3. Discover what’s next …
EUR/USD Climbs to 45-Month High Amid Dollar Weakness, Labor Data in Focus
The EUR/USD exchange rate is up approximately 0.47% in early london trading, hovering around 1.17173. The euro is extending a five-day winning streak against the dollar as broad dollar weakness fuels the rally.
The dollar has struggled throughout 2025, with macro events creating opportunities for investors to favor other major currencies. Even safe-haven demand has shifted away from the dollar, with currencies like the Swiss franc reaching highs not seen since 2011.
The U.S. Dollar Strength Index (DXY) is nearing 97.00, potentially ending the day at a 39-month low if current trends continue, further boosting the EUR/USD pair. The role of the dollar’s weakness is undeniable.
Recent comments from Federal reserve officials suggest a possible shift in focus. While a rate cut in July remains unlikely, some policymakers are considering it. The Federal Reserve’s role in managing inflation and labor market stability is under scrutiny.
why do we want to wait untill we actually see a crash before we start cutting rates? So I’m all in favor of saying maybe we should start thinking about cutting the policy rate at the next meeting, because we don’t want to wait till the job market tanks before we start cutting the policy rate
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, Squawk Box CNBC
Governors Waller and Bowman have indicated that a July rate cut could be on the table if inflation remains contained, signaling a potential pivot towards prioritizing labor market health. The job role of the Federal Reserve is evolving.
Should inflation pressures remain contained, I would support lowering the policy rate as soon as our next meeting to bring it closer to its neutral setting and to sustain a healthy labor market
Federal reserve Governor Michelle Bowman speaking in Prague
U.S. labor data, due later today, will be crucial in determining the EUR/USD’s near-term direction. Key data releases include:
- U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (June 21)
- U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 4-week Average
- U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims (June 14)
Initial jobless claims will be particularly meaningful, providing insights into new unemployment trends. A significant rise in claims could increase bets on a rate cut, putting downward pressure on the dollar and potentially lifting the EUR/USD.
From a technical analysis perspective, the EUR/USD is trading in the upper band of a monthly fibonacci channel, with immediate resistance around 1.19768 and support at 1.11628.
EUR/USD,OANDA,TradingView,26/06/2025
What’s next
Traders should closely monitor U.S. labor data releases and Federal Reserve communications for further clues about the future trajectory of the EUR/USD pair. The New York open will be a key period to watch for market reactions.
