Europe Faces Imminent Jet Fuel Shortages and Flight Disruptions

European airports are warning of systemic jet fuel shortages that could materialize within three weeks if oil supplies do not resume flowing through the strait of Hormuz. The Airports Council International (ACI) Europe has alerted the European Union’s energy and transport commissioners that the region is facing a critical supply window, which threatens to trigger widespread flight cancellations across the UK and EU ahead of the summer holiday season.

The supply crisis follows a period of intense volatility in the oil markets triggered by US and Israeli attacks on Iran starting in late February 2026. In retaliation, Iran effectively closed the strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route that handles approximately 20 percent of the global oil trade. This disruption has caused jet fuel prices to soar, with some reports indicating costs have risen to more than twice pre-war levels.

Market Impact and Pricing

The economic impact of the blockade is reflected in crude oil benchmarks. Brent crude oil prices reached approximately $96 a barrel as of April 10, 2026. This represents a significant increase from the pre-war trading price of approximately $72 a barrel.

The surge in fuel costs has already begun to affect aviation operations. Some flights have been canceled in the UK, and several airports in Italy have introduced refueling limits to manage dwindling stocks. Travelers are facing higher costs and fewer flight options as airlines struggle to absorb the swing in fuel pricing.

Ceasefire and Recovery Outlook

On April 8, 2026, US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire, stating that Iran agreed to a COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz. However, industry leaders warn that a diplomatic agreement will not immediately resolve the physical supply shortage.

If it were to reopen and remain open, I think it will still take a period of months to get back to where [jet fuel] supply needs to be

Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association

Airlines for Europe managing director Ourania Georgoutsakou noted that while the ceasefire may provide relief, it is too early to determine how quickly supply will be restored. The aviation sector expects high prices and potential shortages to persist into the summer holiday season due to the damage caused by weeks of aerial bombardment across the Gulf.

Systemic Risks to EU Aviation

The warning from ACI Europe emphasizes that the current situation is not merely a pricing issue but a systemic threat to the availability of fuel. If stable passage through the strait of Hormuz is not restored within the three-week window, the organization suggests that systemic jet fuel shortages will become a reality for the EU.

The potential for rolling flight and holiday cancellations is high if the conflict continues or if the ceasefire fails to hold. Such disruptions would affect millions of passengers and impact economic activity across the European Union.

• Jet fuel prices have risen sharply since the end of February 2026.
• Brent crude oil prices rose from $72 to approximately $96 per barrel.
• The strait of Hormuz accounts for 20 percent of global oil trade.
• ACI Europe warns of a three-week window before systemic shortages occur.

Industry analysts and lobbyists maintain that the recovery of the fuel supply chain will be a gradual process. Even with the strait reopened, the logistical lag in refining and transporting fuel to European hubs means the aviation sector remains vulnerable for the coming months.