Europe risks energy crisis over low gas storage levels for winter

Europe risks facing an energy crisis ahead of the upcoming winter season due to gas storage levels at a record low for the last 15 years. With underground storage facilities sitting at just 70 percent capacity as of early October 2026, experts warn that only mild weather or the end of the war in Iran will prevent a sharp surge in electricity and heating prices across the continent.

Storage Deficits Driven By Global Supply Shifts

Gas prices in Europe sit at more than double their levels from the previous year, remaining higher only during the autumn of 2022 after Russia shut down the Nord Stream pipeline under the pretext of repairs. While the European Union successfully reduced its reliance on Russian gas from nearly 50 percent down to 12 percent, a new vulnerability emerged with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which disrupted the flow of Qatari liquefied natural gas to global markets.

European companies delayed purchasing costly liquefied natural gas to replenish underground reserves, leaving storage sites at only 70 percent capacity by early October. That figure marks a decline compared to the nearly 90 percent filling rate recorded during the same period in the crisis year of 2022.

Ministers Face Difficult Winter Projections

European Commissioner for Energy Dan Jørgensen acknowledged the severe outlook ahead of a meeting with energy ministers, stating that the upcoming winter would prove very difficult while warning that hope alone remains an inadequate strategy. In response, the European Union lowered its mandatory storage filling target for November 1 from 90 percent down to 80 percent.

Current injection rates indicate that European reserves will reach approximately 74 percent by the start of the heating season, equating to roughly 78 billion cubic meters, S&P Global analysts estimated. That total provides about a quarter of the average gas consumption demanded across the bloc during the winter period, when 70-80% of total annual gas demand occurs.

Oxford Analysts Warn Of Price Volatility

The anticipated reserves of 78 billion cubic meters will suffice only if winter temperatures mirror the mild conditions observed during the 2022/23 and 2023/24 seasons, when the European Union consumed between 40 billion and 45 billion cubic meters from storage, citing analysis from Sharples. A return to the withdrawal patterns seen two winters ago, when the bloc burned 66 billion cubic meters, would rapidly deplete reserves.

Before the gauge drops to zero in some countries, I’m sure prices in Europe will rise very high and very quickly, especially if Hormuz never fully opens.

James Sharples

The primary hazard facing the continent this winter involves high market prices rather than a total physical absence of fuel, as wealthy European economies can secure supplies at a cost. However, depleting reserves to critical lows by spring would force utilities to purchase roughly 30 billion cubic meters between May and November to hit the 90 percent storage threshold for the following year, calculations from Mike Fulwood at OIES show.