The Future Combat Air System (FCAS), a Franco-German-Spanish project intended to deliver a next-generation fighter jet and associated technologies, is facing a near-certain collapse, according to multiple reports. The €100 billion ($118 billion) program, launched in 2017 with the ambitious goal of creating a “sixth-generation” fighter, has been paralyzed by industrial disputes and a growing rift between key partners Airbus and Dassault Aviation.
The project’s unraveling represents a significant setback for European defense cooperation, particularly as nations across the continent reassess their security postures in light of geopolitical instability. While political will to forge ahead remains, the fundamental disagreements over industrial control and work-share distribution appear insurmountable, with some officials suggesting an announcement of the project’s termination is more likely than a revival.
At the heart of the dispute lies a disagreement over the division of labor between Airbus Defence and Space and Dassault Aviation. Dassault, the French partner, is reportedly insisting on maintaining control over the fighter jet component of the FCAS, a position that Airbus, with its German-based defense wing, strongly resists. Airbus Defence CEO Michael Schoellhorn acknowledged the difficulties, stating that “there’s a problem with the manned-fighter between two companies,” and warning that successful large-scale European defense projects require “industrial alignment” alongside political commitment.
The original vision for FCAS encompassed a comprehensive system integrating a next-generation fighter jet with unmanned aerial vehicles (drones), a sophisticated combat cloud, and advanced weaponry. However, the industrial deadlock has stalled progress on all fronts. The failure to reach a consensus on the fighter jet’s development has effectively paralyzed the entire program, casting doubt on the feasibility of delivering a fully integrated system.
The potential collapse of FCAS comes at a critical juncture for European defense. The continent is grappling with the need to bolster its military capabilities in response to a resurgent Russia and a perceived shift in U.S. Security commitments. The program’s demise would not only represent a significant financial loss but also signal a lack of unity and strategic vision within Europe.
The situation is further complicated by the emergence of alternative initiatives, most notably the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), a joint effort between the United Kingdom, Italy, and Japan. GCAP has gained momentum in recent months, consolidating its industrial base and setting a target service date of 2035. The contrast between the stalled FCAS and the advancing GCAP highlights a growing divergence in European air defense strategy.
European nations are now facing a difficult choice: continue to rely heavily on American-made fighter jets, such as the F-35, or invest in autonomous European programs like GCAP to ensure their long-term strategic independence. Italy, for example, is planning to procure over 115 F-35s alongside its existing Eurofighter fleet, demonstrating a commitment to interoperability with NATO allies while simultaneously exploring alternative options.
The potential sale of the developing sixth-generation F-47, a U.S. Next-generation air dominance fighter, adds another layer of complexity to the equation. European nations are hedging their bets, balancing continued F-35 purchases with investments in both GCAP and, to a lesser extent, the remnants of the FCAS program. This reflects a recognition that a diversified approach is necessary to mitigate risks and ensure access to cutting-edge air combat capabilities.
While French officials publicly maintain their commitment to salvaging FCAS, the prospects for a successful resolution appear increasingly slim. Patrick Pailloux, the new head of the French arms procurement agency, stated that “we are doing everything we can to try and save this program,” but acknowledged the challenges involved in reaching a compromise. However, sources close to the French President Emmanuel Macron suggest that the project is effectively “dead,” with no one willing to publicly acknowledge the inevitable.
The failure of FCAS underscores the inherent difficulties of large-scale European defense industrial cooperation. The project’s demise serves as a cautionary tale, highlighting the importance of aligning industrial interests and establishing clear governance structures before embarking on ambitious joint ventures. The future of European air defense now hinges on the success of GCAP and the willingness of nations to prioritize strategic autonomy over national interests.
The situation also raises questions about the broader implications for European defense integration. If FCAS collapses, it could undermine confidence in the ability of European nations to collaborate effectively on other major defense projects, potentially leading to a fragmentation of the European defense industrial base.
