European Spy Chiefs Warn Russia May Escalate Hybrid Campaign Against NATO

Poland and France Sound the Alarm in Paris

According to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, intelligence assessments indicate that Russia could launch drones or missiles at NATO territory in the coming months. Tusk told lawmakers that Moscow aims to demonstrate that the alliance’s crucial Article 5 mutual-defense guarantee is more theoretical than practical. French President Emmanuel Macron described Tusk’s warning as sound and well-documented, subsequently summoning political leaders to an emergency meeting in Paris to address the growing threat.

Czech and Latvian Intelligence Differ on Immediacy

Michal Koudelka, who heads the Czech Republic’s BIS security service, stated in a rare interview at his Prague headquarters that Moscow’s next moves could unfold in months rather than years. Koudelka warned that the Kremlin’s campaign could go beyond increased drone activity to involve small-scale incursions into NATO territory bordering Russia, false-flag provocations, and massive influence operations.

However, intelligence assessments across Europe are not entirely uniform. Normunds Mežviets, director general of Latvia’s VDD state security service, noted that while his agency sees signs that Moscow is preparing for more decisive action in Europe, it does not currently see indications of an imminent military attack, questioning whether Kremlin preparations are instead intended to destabilize Western societies.

Former Diplomats Push Back Against Western Naivety

Complementing current intelligence warnings, three former top intelligence officers, Vlastimil Pávek, Miroslav Poláček, and Vladimír Suchodolinský, waived their anonymity to express frustration regarding Western naivety toward Moscow. Pávek, who has been for many years deputy military attaché in Moscow, criticized Western assumptions about Russian weakness, pointing out that Russia remains rich in raw materials and maintains good armament alongside trade ties with China or Brasil.

Pávek and Suchodolinský cautioned that establishing new NATO bases and military deployments near the Russian frontier carries unpredictable consequences and risks triggering a hardly manageable escalation. Suchodolinský emphasized that Russian President Vladimir Putin only understands force, arguing that Western nations must let him learn our force, but not the confrontational one.

Intensifying Air War and Moscow’s Denials

The heightened intelligence warnings coincide with an intensification of long-range aerial attacks between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine recently launched hundreds of drones at Moscow and other Russian regions in one of the largest aerial assaults of the war, while Ukrainian forces have continued targeting Russian oil infrastructure and refineries.

Meanwhile, Moscow maintains that Western nations supplying Ukraine with weapons, intelligence, and military assistance have made themselves participants in the conflict. Russian President Vladimir Putin has denied that Moscow poses a threat to Europe, even as European intelligence agencies prepare their publics for an intensified security threat.