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Global Trade Uncertainty Rises Amid Tariff Policies, Allianz Trade survey Finds
Table of Contents
- Global Trade Uncertainty Rises Amid Tariff Policies, Allianz Trade survey Finds
- Global Trade Uncertainty Rises: Key findings from the Allianz Trade survey
- What are the main takeaways from the Allianz Trade “Global Survey 2025”?
- Why is there growing uncertainty in global trade, according to the survey?
- How do companies expect current trade disputes to impact them?
- are export expectations changing?
- What strategies are companies employing to adapt to these trade challenges?
- What is “friendshoring” and how is it impacting trade?
- What are the implications of payment delays?
- How are payment terms changing, according to the survey?
- Is Insolvency rising due to trade?
- How do these payment delays affect large companies compared to small/medium sized companies?
- Will tariffs change?
- Table: Key Findings Summary
ROME (AP) — A new study by Allianz Trade indicates that unpredictable U.S. tariff policies have amplified uncertainty among businesses worldwide. The “Global Survey 2025,” released Monday,polled 4,500 companies across China,France,Germany,Italy,Poland,Singapore,spain,the United Kingdom,and the United States.
The survey, conducted in two phases—before and after April 2—reveals a marked shift in growth expectations and risk perception, particularly concerning payment delays. Companies are also implementing various strategies to mitigate the impact of ongoing trade tensions, according to the report.
Negative Impacts Expected
The Allianz Trade survey found that nearly 60% of companies anticipate a negative impact from current trade disputes, with 45% forecasting a decline in export turnover. The effects extend beyond trade volumes, as more than one in four companies are considering temporarily suspending production due to the combined effects of tariffs and currency volatility, especially in sectors reliant on imported goods.
Shifting Expectations
The survey highlights a stark contrast to the optimism seen before April 2. Positive expectations for global exports have plummeted from 80% to 40%. Currently, 42% of companies project a decrease in export turnover of between 2% and 10%, compared to a previous expectation of a 5% increase. Allianz Trade estimates that global export losses could reach $305 billion in 2025, despite recent bilateral agreements.
Adaptation Strategies
Companies are actively responding to these challenges by diversifying partnerships, reconfiguring logistics, and integrating risk-sharing mechanisms throughout their supply chains, according to Aylin somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade. Adaptation mechanisms include transferring higher costs to customers, diversifying supply sources, and seeking alternative shipping routes.
Anticipating shipments
Many companies are anticipating shipments to take advantage of temporary suspensions of tariffs. For example, 86% of U.S. companies reported accelerating shipments from China and the EU before duties took effect. Though, few companies intend to absorb increased costs or reduce export prices to maintain market share, particularly in the United States, where over half of the companies plan to increase prices (54%).
Diversifying Supply Chains
Diversifying supply chains remains a key long-term risk mitigation strategy, with 54% of respondents identifying geopolitical, political, and social disruptions as major threats. Over a third of the companies surveyed have already found new export markets, and almost two-thirds are planning to do so.
Alternative Shipping Routes
To manage customs expenses, many companies are exploring alternative shipping routes. This includes 62% of U.S. companies, a strategy facilitated by a nearly 50% decrease in transport costs since the beginning of 2025 and lower oil prices, projected to remain between $65 and $70 per barrel for the remainder of the year.
Shifting Liabilities
The survey also indicates that companies are increasingly transferring logistics and cost liabilities, including customs duties, to suppliers up to the point of customer delivery. However, the “Cost, Insurance & Freight” (CIF) clause remains prevalent in the United States. Companies are also seeking to share the risks associated with currency volatility by including price clauses in contracts, an option favored by 59% of respondents.
Decoupling trends
Allianz Trade suggests that decoupling between the United States and China is likely to continue in the medium term, despite temporary pauses in tariff escalations.The intention of U.S. companies to export to China has decreased by half, falling to 10% after April 2, while the expectations of Chinese companies to export to North America have dropped from 15% to 3%.
U.S. companies with production facilities in China are increasingly exploring alternatives outside Asia, with a quarter considering Western Europe and another quarter looking at Latin America.
Friendshoring Gains Traction
Françoise Huang, Senior Economist for Asia Pacific and trade at Allianz Trade, noted that while a recent trade agreement has reduced the average U.S. import rate on Chinese goods from a high of 103% to 39%, this rate remains substantially higher than the 13% rate before the second trump administration. “In this context,friendshoring is intended to earn further land: Europe and Latin America are emerging as attractive alternatives for Chinese companies and European companies are also more and more interested in companies. Export to China and Asia: in both options, export intentions have increased up to 36%, and the interest in the South and South-East Asian market has doubled, reaching 14%. United at a lower cost,” Huang saeid.
payment Term Concerns
The trade tensions have also affected expectations regarding payment terms. As April 2, 25% of exporters anticipate longer payment terms of over seven days, an increase of 13 percentage points. Nearly half of exporters (48%) foresee an increased risk of insolvency, particularly in the United States, Italy, and the United Kingdom, reflecting a general deterioration in global trade conditions.
Payment delays
Only 11% of exporting companies continue to receive payments within 30 days, with this figure being significantly lower among major exporters such as the United States, China, and Germany. Approximately 70% of companies receive payments between 30 and 70 days, with slightly higher figures in the United Kingdom (75%), France (73%), Italy (73%), and the United States (73%), varying by sector and company size.
Large Companies Absorb Delays
Ana Boata, Head of Economic research at Allianz Trade, stated that larger companies tend to experience longer payment delays, with 26% of those with a turnover of more than 5 billion euros dealing with payment terms exceeding 70 days, compared to the overall average of 18%. “this suggests that large companies are increasingly taking on the role of invisible bank for smaller companies. While exporters face more and more growing payment cycles. insolvency and are under pressure to transfer the costs, look for new markets or even reconsider their entire presence at an international level,” Boata concluded.
Global Trade Uncertainty Rises: Key findings from the Allianz Trade survey
The global trade landscape is undergoing meaningful shifts. A recent survey by Allianz Trade offers a comprehensive look at how businesses are responding to increased uncertainty stemming from evolving tariff policies adn geopolitical tensions. this article breaks down the key findings, providing insights into challenges and strategies for navigating the evolving international trade surroundings.
What are the main takeaways from the Allianz Trade “Global Survey 2025”?
the Allianz Trade “Global Survey 2025” reveals that businesses worldwide are grappling with increased uncertainty and adapting to evolving trade conditions. Key findings include: a marked shift in growth expectations, notably concerning payment delays, and companies are implementing various strategies to mitigate the impact of ongoing trade tensions. The survey, which polled 4,500 companies, highlights the negative impacts of US Tariff policies and the various strategic measures companies are opting for to cope with these trade tensions.
Why is there growing uncertainty in global trade, according to the survey?
the survey points to several factors contributing to the rise in uncertainty:
- Unpredictable U.S. Tariff Policies: These policies have amplified uncertainty, leading businesses to re-evaluate their strategies.
- Increased risk Perception: Companies are experiencing shifted expectations, especially when it comes to export turnover and payment delays.
- Currency Volatility: The combined effects of tariffs and currency volatility are forcing companies to suspend production temporarily.
- Geopolitical Tensions: This leads to companies adapting to the various new conditions in the international business environment.
How do companies expect current trade disputes to impact them?
Nearly 60% of companies anticipate a negative impact from current trade disputes.Specifically, 45% of the companies surveyed forecast a decline in export turnover. This negative impact extends beyond just reduced trade volumes, indicating significant disruption across multiple sectors depending on international imports.
are export expectations changing?
Yes,significantly. Positive expectations for global exports have plummeted from 80% to 40%. Consequently, 42% of companies project a decrease in export turnover of between 2% and 10%. This is a stark contrast to previous expectations.
What strategies are companies employing to adapt to these trade challenges?
Companies are employing a range of adaptive strategies, including:
- Diversifying Partnerships: Expanding relationships to reduce dependence on single markets.
- Reconfiguring Logistics: Streamlining supply chains and logistics to improve efficiency and cost-effectiveness.
- Integrating Risk-sharing Mechanisms: Employing tools like price clauses and other mechanisms to mitigate losses.
- Anticipating Shipments: Expediting shipments to take advantage of temporary tariff suspensions.
- Diversifying Supply Chains: Moving sources of supply to other markets to improve resilience.
- Exploring Option Shipping Routes: Seeking to reduce customs costs by using other routes.
What is “friendshoring” and how is it impacting trade?
“Friendshoring” involves shifting trade and investment to countries with similar political and economic values. The Allianz trade survey indicates friendshoring is emerging in Europe and Latin America. These regions are becoming attractive alternatives for companies looking to move away from China or in search of less risky markets.
What are the implications of payment delays?
the trade tensions have also affected expectations regarding payment terms. As of April 2, 25% of exporters anticipate longer payment terms of over seven days. Nearly half of exporters (48%) foresee an increased risk of insolvency, particularly in the United States, Italy, and the United Kingdom, reflecting a general deterioration in global trade conditions.
How are payment terms changing, according to the survey?
The survey indicates that payment terms are lengthening, reflecting increasing financial strain. Only 11% of companies continue to receive payments within 30 days. The data further highlights regional variations,with 70% of companies receiving payments within 30-70 days. Longer payment delays increase the financial burden on businesses and raise risk of insolvency.
Is Insolvency rising due to trade?
Yes, nearly half of exporters (48%) foresee an increased risk of insolvency. Some of the countries most affected are the United States, Italy, and the United Kingdom.
How do these payment delays affect large companies compared to small/medium sized companies?
Larger companies tend to experience longer payment delays as they act as “invisible banks” for smaller partners. The survey shows that 26% of large companies, with a turnover of more than 5 billion euros, face payment terms exceeding 70 days. this suggests larger companies are bearing a disproportionate amount of the financial strain from delayed payments.
Will tariffs change?
A recent trade agreement has reduced the average U.S. import rate on Chinese goods from a high of 103% to 39%, this rate remains substantially higher than the 13% rate before the second trump administration.
Table: Key Findings Summary
| Area of Concern | Impact |
|---|---|
| Growth Expectations | Plummeting positive expectations, with many companies expecting negative outcomes |
| Export Turnover | 45% of companies project a decline |
| Payment Terms | Lengthening - A rise risk of insolvency for a majority of companies |
| Shipping Costs | Transport costs have decreased significantly |
| Supply Chains | Companies are diversifying their supply chains and seeking friendshoring markets |
| Tariffs | US import rate on Chinese goods has decreased (but still higher) |
Disclaimer: This blog post summarizes the findings of the Allianz trade ”Global Survey 2025.” For detailed data and analysis, please refer to the full report.