Munich, Germany – As the annual Munich Security Conference convenes this weekend, a palpable sense of anxiety hangs over Europe. Policymakers are grappling with growing uncertainty surrounding the United States’ commitment to European defense under a potential second Trump administration, a situation fueling tension across the continent.
The conference arrives at a critical juncture, with Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine and a shifting geopolitical landscape demanding a reassessment of Europe’s security posture. For decades, Europe has relied on the United States for its defense, allowing it to prioritize economic integration, and prosperity. However, that era appears to be drawing to a close, forcing European nations to confront their enduring military shortfalls and accelerate their transition to becoming security providers.
The European Policy Centre’s Defence and Security project (DefSecEU) has been actively researching and outlining potential pathways for Europe to assume greater responsibility for its own defense. Several recent reports offer essential background reading for the debates unfolding in Munich, focusing on key areas of concern and potential solutions.
Boosting European Defense Capabilities
One key report, “Quick march! Ten steps for a European defence surge,” authored by Paul Taylor, Juraj Majcin, Chris Kremidas-Courtney, Maria Martisiute, and Mihai Sebastian Chihaia, argues that Europe has a narrow window of opportunity to mobilize its industrial, financial, and political power for a sustained defense buildup. With Russia at war, China’s growing assertiveness, and diminishing certainty regarding US guarantees, the report stresses the urgency of action to avoid being unprepared for future confrontations.
Another report, “How to spend it: European defence for the age of mass precision,” by Chris Kremidas-Courtney, questions whether Europe’s defense spending is adequately preparing it for modern warfare. The report argues for a radical rethink of investment strategies, emphasizing the need to address the challenges posed by drone warfare, AI-enabled systems, and evolving command structures.
Nuclear Deterrence and Military Mobility
The question of nuclear deterrence is also taking center stage. Juraj Majcin’s policy brief, “From umbrella to arsenal: boosting Europe’s nuclear deterrence,” examines whether Europe can effectively deter a nuclear-armed Russia if the US security umbrella weakens. The report suggests that conventional rearmament alone may not be sufficient and calls for a reevaluation of Europe’s nuclear posture, moving towards a more credible, European-based deterrent.
Beyond firepower, logistical capabilities are crucial. Mihai Sebastian Chihaia’s report, “Military mobility a critical enabler,” highlights the importance of ensuring Europe can rapidly deploy its forces if needed. The report argues that upgrading infrastructure, streamlining regulations, and investing in dual-use corridors are essential to overcome current limitations and establish a robust military mobility network.
Addressing Emerging Threats
The reports also address emerging threats beyond traditional military concerns. Maria Martisiute’s discussion paper, “Flying blind: How to prevent Russian GPS operations from causing a European air disaster,” warns of the dangers posed by Russia’s escalating GPS jamming and spoofing operations, which could potentially trigger a European air disaster. The paper calls for a coordinated EU-NATO response to deter interference and strengthen technical resilience.
The Future of the European Union
Looking at the broader context, Almut Möller’s outlook paper, “Two Tales in a City: The European Union in 2026,” examines the challenges facing the European Union and asks whether 2026 will be a year of renewal or further drift. The paper argues that bold reforms to Europe’s political and security architecture are necessary to avoid continued vulnerability and ensure a more secure future.
These publications from the European Policy Centre provide a comprehensive framework for understanding the complex security challenges facing Europe and offer concrete steps towards building a more resilient and autonomous defense capability. As policymakers gather in Munich, these insights will undoubtedly shape the discussions and inform the strategies for navigating an increasingly uncertain world.
