Europe’s Role in Supporting Ukraine: Navigating Challenges Amidst US Political Shifts

In the years following 9/11, Robert Kagan wrote a significant book titled Of Paradise and Power: America and Europe in the New World Order. He argued that while Europe valued a rules-based international order, it depended on American military power to handle threats from rogue states.

The Iraq war, initiated by George W. Bush, exposed flaws in Kagan’s thesis. This war resulted in immense suffering and chaos in the Middle East. However, Kagan’s analysis illustrated a division of responsibilities between hard power and soft power in the West. Now, the future of Ukraine might hinge on how this relationship changes in a new global context.

Joe Biden recently allowed Ukraine to use long-range US missiles against Russia, which boosted Ukrainian morale. Yet, this decision did not change the brutal nature of the war. If former President Donald Trump withdraws US aid to Ukraine next year to push for an unfair peace, the situation could worsen. European countries must urgently plan for this possibility.

Creating such a strategy requires clear political leadership amid challenges. Many in Europe feel weary of the war after the Ukrainian counteroffensive failed in 2023 and due to rising living costs. In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz is campaigning against sending long-range missiles to Ukraine ahead of an upcoming election. Meanwhile, Russia has test-fired a hypersonic missile, aimed at intimidating European voters.

Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk is working to unite countries like Britain, France, and the Nordic and Baltic nations to support Ukraine. As of now, no peace talks exist between Russia and Ukraine. While reclaiming all territory lost since 2014 may be unrealistic, Europe must ensure Ukraine remains strong in any future negotiations. If American support declines, Europe should provide military and financial aid to help Ukraine.

Trump’s past approach to NATO raises concerns. Europe must resist any move by the incoming US president that could weaken Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has shown some support for Trump’s “peace through strength” stance. However, the responsibility to support Ukraine may fall on European nations after his inauguration. Keeping Ukraine strong is essential for Europe’s security. Europe must act to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty, deter future Russian threats, and work toward lasting peace and rebuilding efforts.