Key Findings of the IEA World Energy Outlook 2024

A new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), released in October 2024, indicates a meaningful shift in the global energy landscape driven by the increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), particularly in China. This surge in EV sales is poised to disrupt the oil market, potentially putting major oil and gas producers in a tough position. Though, the report also warns that the world remains far off track from meeting its net-zero goals.

Electric Vehicle Adoption and the Oil Market

China is currently leading the charge in EV adoption, with electric vehicles accounting for 40% of all new car sales within the country. Globally, EVs now represent 20% of new car sales. This rapid growth is a significant departure from recent years, where China was the primary driver of oil demand and planet-heating emissions.

The IEA report suggests that continued momentum in EV adoption could displace a considerable amount of oil demand, creating challenges for oil and gas producers. The report outlines scenarios where EV adoption continues to accelerate, further eroding the demand for oil.

Climate Goals Remain Elusive

Despite the positive trend of EV adoption, the IEA report emphasizes that the world is still significantly off course to achieve the goals set forth in the 2015 Paris Agreement. The agreement aimed to limit global warming to 1.5 Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. However, current projections indicate that average global temperatures are on track to rise by 4.32° Fahrenheit (2.4° Celsius) by the end of the century.

Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, stated that emissions would need to decline rapidly and consistently after peaking to have a reasonable chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C. The report indicates that, without a significant acceleration of climate action, emissions will only decline slowly after reaching their highest level. This means the world is not on a trajectory aligned with its net-zero goals.

About the IEA and the World Energy Outlook

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is an intergovernmental body based in Paris, France. The IEA was founded in 1974 in response to the 1973 oil crisis. Learn more about the IEA.

The World Energy Outlook is published annually by the IEA and is a widely respected source of information on global energy trends and policy impacts. Policymakers and analysts rely on the report for insights into the future of energy.