Evaluating MLB Teams: Transition from bWAR to fWAR in Draft-and-Develop Success
- This year's update switched from bWAR to fWAR for evaluating player careers.
- I repeated the analysis from last year using fWAR data while adjusting my methods for FanGraphs data peculiarities.
- A list of teams shows success in drafting and developing talent over the years.
Changes in Player Evaluation
Table of Contents
This year’s update switched from bWAR to fWAR for evaluating player careers. This adjustment aims to improve accuracy in measuring player performance.
Key Observations
I repeated the analysis from last year using fWAR data while adjusting my methods for FanGraphs data peculiarities.
Top Draft and Develop Teams (2000-2019)
A list of teams shows success in drafting and developing talent over the years. Notably, the Angels scored well due to stars like Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani.
Laggards (2000-2019)
A separate list identifies teams that struggled with drafting during the same period. These teams often remain at the bottom of the rankings.
Top Teams (2014-2023)
In the latest rankings, the Cardinals improved from 6th to 4th among draft and develop teams over the last decade. This shift highlights the success of their drafts from 2014 to 2017.
Laggards (2014-2023)
Teams on this list include those that consistently underperform, raising questions about their future success.
Notable Draft Stats
Out of 441 significant players, 128 were drafted but not signed. This indicates teams excel at identifying talent, even if they do not secure these players.
Player Timeline
Evaluating player drafts takes 7-10 years. The average notable player reaches the MLB within 2.5 to 3.5 years post-draft.
International Free Agents
The timeline differs for International Free Agents (IFAs), who generally take 4.5 to 5.5 years to debut in the MLB. This variance impacts team roster management.
Draft Success Metrics
An average draft yields 33 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and 1.5 notable players. Consistent performance above these averages is critical for team success.
Cardinals Draft Performance
The Cardinals remain in the top ranks for talent acquisition in both the past 20 and 10 years. They must maintain their draft and development strategy to remain competitive in the league.
Methodology Overview
I collected fan data from 2000-2024. Analyzed drafted players and IFAs create a comprehensive view of baseball development strategies.
Conclusion
Drafting and developing talent remains crucial for team success in Major League Baseball. The Cardinals demonstrate effective strategies that others can learn from while adjusting to changing player dynamics and competitive landscapes.