Eye of the Storm: Hurricanes and Conspiracy Theories Collide in the US Election

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In U.S. election analysis, there is the so-called “October Surprise”, which refers to the fact that in October before the U.S. presidential election, some major events often occur, which may have a decisive impact on the election. “October surprises” are usually unpredictable and may occur due to political operations, external events or other emergencies. If there is an October surprise this year, it may be Hurricane Helene that hit the southern United States at the end of September. In particular, the affected areas include one of this year’s key swing states: North Carolina.

The affected area in North Carolina is located in the western part of the state and belongs to the Appalachian Mountains. Due to geographical conditions, the Appalachian Mountains are separated from other places, and the terrain is not suitable for large-scale farming. Therefore, the population is sparse, and the proportion of white people is extremely high. It has always been unique in politics, economy, and culture. The general impression China emphasizes self-reliance and is highly suspicious of the government and outsiders.

In fact, only a few small and medium-sized cities in the entire western North Carolina support the Democratic Party, and the rest of the mountainous countryside is “Trump Country” that supports Trump. Not only in North Carolina, but also in places such as Tennessee, Kentucky, and Alabama, Appalachian residents generally support the Republican Party at an overwhelming rate. West Virginia is a classic case: the entire state belongs to the Appalachian Mountains. It still supported the Democratic Party from the 1970s to the 1990s, but after George W. Bush, the Republican Party was able to gain a majority. These two elections were particularly Trump captured nearly 70% of the votes. Vance, Trump’s deputy this time, also became famous for writing about his “spiritual homeland” Appalachian Mountains in “Song of the Desperate.” However, Vance mainly grew up in the urban area of Ohio, and Appalachia was only the place where his grandparents were from, so many people have questioned the accuracy of this work.

On October 3, 2024, in Crusoe, North Carolina, the United States, residents washed and dried photos of floods after being hit by Hurricane Helene. Photo: Jonathan Drake/Reuters/Dazhi Image

The storm disaster can become an “October surprise” at any time, naturally because North Carolina’s election is very critical: North Carolina, which holds 16 Electoral College votes, is a key area in this presidential election: in 2008, Obama won all the Among the states, North Carolina had the smallest margin of victory; in 2012, Romney, who switched to the Republican Party, won North Carolina, and among all the states he won, North Carolina was also the most thrilling. In 2020, Trump won by just 1.3%. In terms of absolute votes, out of more than 5.5 million votes cast, Trump only won by 70,000 votes over Biden, making North Carolina the only state where the Democratic Party has hope of making a comeback. From west to east, various notices from both parties can be seen across North Carolina, reminding voters that the electoral gap is small and urging people to remember to vote.

Such a small gap also means that even if the hurricane only has a slight impact on the election in nearby areas, it is likely to affect the overall situation. In fact, since the early days of the storm, Trump has repeatedly accused the Democratic Party of suppressing the election in the district on his online platform Truth Social. On September 30, he said that the federal government and the governor of North Carolina were “going out of their way” to keep voters in Republican areas from getting help. In addition, regarding the disaster relief operations of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Trump claimed that “those whose homes were washed away, they only plan to give them $750,” but even local Republican Representative Chuck Edwards Urgently came forward to help clarify, telling voters that the $750 was FEMA’s immediate emergency relief fund for food, drinking water, and baby food provided to disaster victims, and was only a small part of the relief plan.

Trump also claimed that FEMA had no money to help the victims, and this was because Harris herself “spent billions of dollars of FEMA’s money on giving illegal immigrants a house to live in.” Opinions attacking FEMA followed: Elon Musk, a wealthy man who campaigned with Trump and donated huge sums of money during this election, also posted many times on his Twitter platform, accusing FEMA of “actively blocking “Private donations of materials, or even “taking away” materials that have been donated, are simply “treason”, and further claimed that the local police had planned to arrest FEMA employees. In more extreme circles, there are even rumors such as “If your application for bailout is not approved, your house and land will be taken away”, claiming that the Democratic Party has long wanted to seize land in the western mountainous area for lithium mining, and FEMA’s exploration The disaster is just a scam.

Eye of the Storm: Hurricanes and Conspiracy Theories Collide in the US Election - News Directory 3

The natural disaster itself may already have an impact on the election, and at this moment, the issue of disaster relief has become a political issue, and it is even closely linked to the fundamental dispute about whether people trust the federal government, especially the Democratic government. However, it may also in turn make other people question Trump. Fitness to serve as president. Overall, how might the hurricane impact the election? In other words, what risks do the two camps face under the hurricane?

In mid-October, I visited Eric Heberlig, a political scientist at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte, in Charlotte, North Carolina. Heberlig’s research expertise is in electoral organizations and political party competition. He is familiar with local politics in North Carolina. After the hurricane, he was interviewed by Charlotte local media to analyze the possible impact of the hurricane on the election. After reading his analysis, I came to his research room. On the one hand, I continued to ask questions, and on the other hand, I also extended my exploration of conspiracy theories and the possible impact of the politicization of disaster relief.

Voter turnout is bound to be lower, but to which party’s detriment?

End = end media

Heberlig=Eric Heberlig

Duan: I read the analysis you provided in a previous interview and wanted to make sure I understood you accurately. This hurricane will definitely lower the turnout in western North Carolina. The only question is which party’s voters will be affected. The impact is relatively large, is this my understanding correct?

Heberlig:Yes. We can be sure that the turnout rate will be affected. The disaster caused by the hurricane is too serious, including that some voters will not be able to go to the polling stations, and some voters will be forced to leave the place where they live, including the original election precincts. The polling stations may also be destroyed, and many local election personnel will also be affected by the disaster, which will definitely affect the turnout rate.

But what many people are concerned about is how this will affect winning or losing, which is hard to say. If you look at the map, most of the affected areas strongly support the Republican Party, but there are also several smaller places that are Democratic vote bases, including the major city of Asheville and Boone, home to Appalachian State University.

Therefore, if the number of people affected on both sides is close, it may not affect the election results at all. But if voters on one side are ultimately more affected, considering that the election situation in North Carolina has always been tense, it is very likely to affect the final result. Not just the presidential election, but also other state-level and local-level elections.

Duan: You also mentioned in the interview that because the votes of the Democratic Party are concentrated in cities, if the turnout rate in Asheville drops by 10% and the neighboring rural areas also drop by 10%, the impact on the Democratic Party will actually be greater. Is it okay here? Could you please explain more?

Heberlig: That’s right, because the Republican Party’s main support is scattered in rural areas and the population is not so dense, so if the turnout rate in one place decreases by 10%, the Republican Party may only lose 1,000 votes. On the contrary, the Democratic Party’s vote base is in densely populated urban areas, and if the turnout rate in some areas of Asheville drops by 10%, the Democratic Party may lose 10,000 votes at a time. Since in presidential and other state-level elections, victory or defeat depends on the votes counted in the entire state, this situation will be more serious for the Democratic Party.

I don’t have the actual number of votes at hand now. This number is just an example. But in short, because the population density of the two parties’ vote bases is very different, even if it seems on the map that the majority of the affected areas support the Republican Party, judging from the total number of votes , the Democratic Party may still suffer a greater impact, which we cannot predict at this moment.

(Press: According to actual observation data, in the 2020 presidential election, Buncombe County, where Asheville is located, cast more than 160,000 votes. In contrast, there are a total of 7 rural counties bordering this county, all of which supported Trump. But the total votes cast in the seven counties just exceeded 200,000.

Therefore, applying Heberlig’s example, if the turnout in Buncombe County decreases by 10%, and the turnout in 3 to 4 of the surrounding seven counties also decreases by 10%, the number of votes lost in Buncombe County may still be relatively large.

To look at it another way, Buncombe County alone gave Biden a net win of 36,000 votes, while Trump only won a net win of 59,000 votes in these seven counties combined. Similarly, if half of the seven surrounding counties were seriously affected and the turnout dropped by 10%, but Buncombe County also dropped by 10%, and the two offset each other in the end, it is likely that Trump would still win a net win of about 10,000 votes, compared with last time. The difference between victory and defeat in the entire state of North Carolina was only more than 70,000 votes. )

What are the obstacles for disaster victims to vote?

Duan: So, after the typhoon disaster, what determines the voting rate of victims in various places? Does it mainly depend on issues such as those areas where roads can be repaired faster? Or are there other factors that are equally important?

Heberlig: We can first look at each voter’s own voting intention. At one extreme, it is conceivable that some voters care so much about voting that they will do their best to overcome even if the hurricane causes huge obstacles. On the other hand, one could imagine some voters who were not that interested in voting in the first place, but the slightest additional disruption caused by the hurricane was enough to keep them home from voting.

Therefore, the lower the willingness of voters, the greater the impact of the hurricane. But of course, even if a voter is very willing to vote, if the road is still not clear, he cannot go down the mountain, and the post office staff cannot go up the mountain, then he physically cannot vote.

In addition, the two parties’ original plans to press for votes in this area must now be scrapped. The priorities in people’s minds are very different now. The most urgent thing is to find water and food. What’s more, even if you really go to the voters as planned, the voters may not still be where you thought they were. Therefore, it is also a big challenge for both parties to find new ways to increase the voting intention of their supporters.

Duan: So, if we want to evaluate the impact of hurricanes on different voters, all we need to do is compare “willingness” and “impediment.”

Heberlig: Right, and when discussing obstacles, one of the biggest questions is “where is the voting station?”

First, can people physically get to the polls? Secondly, they may have gone to a polling place to vote their whole life, but now that polling place was destroyed by a hurricane, does he know where else he can go to vote? Obtaining such information can also be another obstacle.

Of course, the election committees of each county should plan to put up notices, set up road signs, and send staff to explain, but this brings another problem: this is very difficult, especially when the county offices may have been damaged by the storm. If it is washed away, local public officials themselves may be affected by the disaster and may be homeless, and the additional electoral staff originally recruited may not be able to come now. Now, the primary concern of these people is to find food and drinking water for themselves, so the manpower of the election administration is very tight.

Besides, they didn’t have much time to prepare. On the books, there is a month between the hurricane and the voting day, but in fact they only have half a month at most to complete everything, because early voting will be available in North Carolina starting on October 17th, and before that Everything is ready.

Duan: It sounds like the examples you just gave are mainly about people who are still in the disaster area. We know that some disaster-stricken households have temporarily moved to Charlotte or other towns. How will they be affected?

Heberlig: The state government has already launched a contingency plan. It is relatively easy for them to vote, but it does not mean that it is not difficult.

The people you mentioned are temporarily living in other areas. Now the state election committee allows them to vote in other places and submit their ballots at the polling station where they currently live. The problem is that you still have to apply to the election committee for off-site voting in time, get the correct ballot that belongs to your constituency, and deliver it to the polling station within the time limit. You can deliver it in person or send it through the post office. The date, not the postmark date, is the criterion, so it all depends on the voters to think of it quickly and start working quickly.

Also, if you come to Charlotte on your own and stay in a hotel, for example, you likely don’t know where to vote. If you stay with local relatives and friends, they may know, but it’s hard to tell because they probably don’t vote much. These are additional information obstacles brought about by the storm. Moreover, North Carolina began to implement new election regulations this year, requiring specific documents to vote, which is another possible obstacle for people fleeing emergency.

In addition, there may be some people who are currently busy with community services, assisting in disaster relief and reconstruction, and some people have to take care of relatives and friends who come to stay, which may also reduce their willingness to vote.

All of the above factors will definitely depress turnout. The question is how big the impact will be, and we really don’t know now.

(Note: For disaster-stricken households, the North Carolina State Election Commission has urgently relaxed the regulations. You can fill in the document exemption application form, or you can go to the election commission or supervisory office in person to apply for election certificates for free. These have greatly reduced the obstacles, but still need to One more procedure.)

Will storm damage lead to election lawsuits?

Duan: According to your judgment, is it possible that the storm disaster will trigger election litigation? Will any party come out to challenge the election results?

Heberlig: It almost certainly will. Even in states that were not hit by the storm, there have been a bunch of lawsuits challenging the detailed planning of the election committees and election personnel. What’s more, in North Carolina, there were so many contingency measures caused by the storm, and so many temporary measures were needed. For big changes, many matters even rely on the on-the-spot judgment of election officials. If any party believes that certain changes can affect the election results, it is likely to launch a challenge.

Duan: How long will this kind of litigation last? Generally speaking, one of the most common forms is to require that votes coming in from a certain county or in a certain way cannot be counted. This is tantamount to advocating that a bunch of votes from disaster victims be thrown away. Isn’t this ugly?

Heberlig: True, but people do it all the time, and voters don’t punish such parties for it, so of course they have an incentive to continue doing it.

How will hurricane conspiracy theories affect the election?

Duan: With the election approaching, this disaster relief has also been politicized, and conspiracy theories have begun to emerge against federal disaster relief workers. We have just seen some people violently threaten disaster relief workers because they believe in these conspiracy theories. Will this affect the election? Will it be affected in disaster areas and non-disaster areas?

Heberlig: It’s hard to say that a certain camp will start to spread this conspiracy theory. Their calculation is obviously that it can increase their own voting rate. For example, if some disaster victims believe that the federal government is out to harm them, they are more likely to feel that they must stand up and make those in power pay.

But you’re specifically asking where this affects voters, and that’s a good question. Because it is very difficult to obtain any information in the West at the moment, specific political information, whether true or false, may not be able to get in. If the Trump camp wants to stimulate this kind of resentment, the main effect may not be on the victims. For example, they may also want to mobilize voters in the rural areas of eastern North Carolina at the same time, emphasizing that the federal government and the Democratic Party suppress us people, so as to increase their willingness to vote and seek justice for the westerners who are also in rural areas.

Duan: You mentioned rural voters in particular. I would like to ask further, outside the disaster area, if this kind of conspiracy theory is to come into play, which type of voters is most likely to be mobilized?

Heberlig: The focus will not be on Trump’s die-hard supporters, who already have high voting intentions. In their minds, this information may once again prove that the Democratic Party is evil, but it may only increase voting intention from 98% to 99%, and the impact will be very limited.

The focus of these conspiracy theories may be that it may be rural. Politics is often about finding a group of people and emphasizing that you are on their side. In theory, this could be based on region, it could be based on occupation, and in the current United States, the urban-rural divide has become an important divide.

More broadly, if these conspiracy theories are to have any impact, they should target the kind of anti-establishment, politically averse voters who have traditionally been less involved in politics and may not even be involved in politics now, but Trump The main reason for its success is that it appealed to this group of voters. This idea is particularly formed in rural areas, but in fact, a high proportion of people in any region of the United States believe that the government has taken advantage of people in other places, and only people like themselves are paying.

However, because this group of voters already supports Trump at a high rate this time, it is difficult to say how much additional influence this type of conspiracy theory will have. All this depends on whether this type of conspiracy theory can further drive their turnout, and whether it can make these people feel that “people like us are not respected” and “especially Democratic politicians specialize in bullying people like us.”

Having said that, this may be particularly important in the mountainous areas of western North Carolina, the hardest hit area this time. Residents of the Western Appalachian Mountains have always been particularly anti-establishment and highly distrustful of the government. They have been swing voters for a long time and have distrust of politicians from both parties. Their voting tendency depends on what they think about this election. Which political party is more on your side? And Trump is the representative of this kind of anti-establishment and distrust. This is not just in North Carolina, but also in West Virginia (note: the entire territory is in the Appalachian Mountains), which has completely become the Republican Party. Territory, and the situation in western North Carolina is somewhat similar. As mentioned before, there may be great obstacles for people affected by the disaster to vote, and the most urgent problem at the moment is finding water and food to eat. Therefore, such conspiracy theories may also increase their willingness to overcome obstacles to go out to vote. Teach the Democrats a lesson.

Conspiracy theories can backfire

Duan: So, are these conspiracy theories likely to have counterproductive effects? If so, which group of voters is it targeted at?

Heberlig: If it had the opposite effect, it might be to reinforce the trend of highly educated white suburbanites moving toward the Democratic Party.

Traditional conservative voters might have supported Trump because of his policies, immigration and other issues, but they did not like Trump’s leadership style and personality. In North Carolina, they live mostly in cities or suburbs, and this is the kind of people who are very disgusted by the events of January 6, the kind of Republicans who voted for Nikki Haley in the primary, or Chaney. Dick Cheney kind of Republican. They think Trump has crossed a line that shouldn’t be crossed, but they still don’t know if they can “swallow it” and vote for Harris, who in their minds supports abortion rights and always spends too much. Money Democrats.

And when something like this happens before the election, they may think: It’s too bad to do this. How can they spread such obvious false information and use other people’s money and lives to engage in politics? These disaster-stricken people need help, how can you let them refuse the help of disaster relief personnel?

Admittedly, this counter-effect may not be very big. After all, Trump’s approval rating has hardly fluctuated at all in the past few years, and we may also want to say that if we want to reject those who support Trump because of the January 6 incident, I should have refused a long time ago, not least this time – there have been so many straws, I don’t know how many camels have been crushed.

However, there are still some voters who have not yet decided who to vote for, and these people essentially have multiple different standards in their heads, making them confused about which side to support. Therefore, in the countdown to the election, the importance of improving criteria such as personality and leadership style may affect the last-minute decisions of some of them.

The reason why I say this is because during the 2022 midterm elections, on the one hand, Biden has always wanted to focus on defending democracy, and it is generally believed that it has no effect. However, on the other hand, when Pelosi’s home was broken into and her husband was arrested After being seriously injured, although it cannot be said to have a major impact on the election, it did affect a few traditional conservative voters, and the number was higher than I thought. The reason behind this is that they originally believed that Trump’s leadership style was dangerous, and the actual occurrence of violence increased the importance of this issue in the minds of this group of people.

Duan: Regarding this election, many media analyzes also emphasize the turnout rate of potential Democratic supporters. Will this kind of counter-effect be seen among this group of people?

Heberlig: In addition to the group of traditional conservative voters just discussed, it is also important whether voters who tend to support the Democratic Party go out to vote. These are two key groups of voters, both of which could influence the outcome of the election.

There are two types of these people: one is anti-establishment voters who are disappointed with the Democratic Party because of issues such as commodity prices. There are particularly many young black men among them. In North Carolina, they may be in the rural areas of eastern North Carolina (Note: Among the rural areas of eastern North Carolina, Some counties are majority black). In addition, there are young voters who are concerned about Palestinian issues. These people tend to live in university towns and in the research delta (note: central North Carolina is located in the area where three research universities are located, and there are also many technology industries settled there).

These people probably will not vote for Trump, but they may not go out to vote for Harris. The question is also whether such an incident before the election will make some people feel at the last moment that they still have to vote to prevent Trump from doing this. People come to power.

Duan: So how do you evaluate the Democratic Party’s response to these conspiracy theories this time?

Heberlig: The Democratic Party responded mainly by accusing Trump of playing politics on the issue of disaster relief. I think I’m not quite sure what a good response looks like, because what you have to do is express that your primary concern is the affected people, but you also have to challenge the information released by your opponent, and you can’t let your opponent’s statement be the only one. argument, and that’s what they do.

Duan: As for the role of the media, especially local media? The local TV stations I have seen so far use headlines to report false information that threatens disaster relief workers with violence, but they rarely point it in the direction of politicians, and rarely mention that Trump is the person who actively spreads these rumors. Instead, the local newspaper “Xia” The editorial board of Lott Observer condemned Trump’s behavior on the opinion page. How should we understand these different approaches?

Heberlig: The readership of local newspapers has declined significantly in recent years. Today, the main readers of the Charlotte Observer are generally highly educated. In contrast, local TV stations can still maintain a relatively broad audience, so what you mentioned This phenomenon reflects that they do not want to offend the audience and know that some viewers cannot accept Trump being named and being said to have done something wrong. They still believe that they have a responsibility to report that these false information are being “disseminated” and have caused such problems, but they will use the passive voice to say it, not talking about Trump’s role at all, let alone bringing in any moral judgment.