Far-Right AfD Wins Historic Victory in Saxony-Anhalt State Election

Saxony-Anhalt Election Results and Vote Breakdown

With 97 percent of the ballots counted, voter turnout reached an estimated 76.9 percent, marking a substantial increase from the 60.3 percent recorded in 2021. The governing federal coalition’s major partner, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), suffered a steep decline. According to ZDF data, the CDU dropped 19.9 points from the previous election to finish second with 17.2 percent of the vote. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) placed third with 9.1 percent, followed closely by the Greens at 8.9 percent and the Left Party at 8.6 percent. First-time participant Alliance for Social Justice and Economic Understanding (BSW) cleared the five percent electoral threshold by securing 5.2 percent of the vote, earning entry into the state parliament. Conversely, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) garnered only 2.5 percent, failing to cross the five percent threshold required for parliamentary representation.

Seat Projections and Coalition Hurdles

ZDF seat distribution projections indicate the AfD will secure 39 of the 83 seats in the state parliament. Securing an absolute majority requires 42 seats, leaving the AfD three seats short of governing alone. Under current projections, the CDU is slated to hold 15 seats; the SPD, Greens, and Left Party will each hold 8 seats; and the BSW is projected to take 5 seats. Forming a government without the AfD presents a complex arithmetic challenge for traditional parties. Incumbent state premier and CDU lead candidate Sven Schulze reiterated his refusal to cooperate with the AfD. Meanwhile, BSW co-lead candidate Thomas Schulze signaled potential flexibility, stating that his party would talk with all factions, including the AfD. AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund expressed skepticism regarding a minority government, noting that new elections could occur if coalition talks stall, adding that his party could potentially secure an even larger mandate in a snap election.

Voter Demographics and Party Reactions

Polling data compiled by Infratest dimap for ARD on election day shows the AfD leading nearly every demographic group across the state. The party tied with the CDU among voters aged 70 and older at 31 percent, but claimed outright first place across all younger brackets. The AfD captured 42 percent of voters aged 18 to 24 and 44 percent among those aged 25 to 34. Its support climbed to 53 percent in both the 35–44 and 45–59 age brackets, and reached 47 percent among voters aged 60 to 69. Party co-leader Alice Weidel characterized the outcome as a historic result and a clear mandate to form a government. Ulrich Siegmund echoed this sentiment to supporters, declaring that the party had written history in the state.