Florida Latino voters shift support away from Trump ahead of midterms

I voted already, and what I did when I was voting and when I was with my ballot, I was really thinking and praying for all those that has no voice, those that can not vote, those immigrants that are right now victim of actions on the streets, William Diaz tells TIME, referring to President Donald Trump’s mass deportation agenda and the expansive influence of Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

As millions of Floridians cast early ballots ahead of the Nov. 3, 2026, midterm elections, declining Latino support for the Republican party threatens to reshape tight races across the state. Diaz, an Orlando resident who has lived in Florida for 37 years, said he previously supported Republican figures like Sen. Rick Scott and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, but he is now using his vote to oppose Trump’s immigration policies.

Economic Strain and Immigration Policies Drive Voter Frustration

Latino voters represent a crucial swing bloc in Florida, having played a key role in Trump’s 2024 victory when 56% supported him over Kamala Harris, according to the 2024 American Electorate Voter Poll. However, new polling ahead of the midterms shows that dissatisfaction regarding the economy and immigration enforcement is eroding that backing.

Stephanie Valencia, a co-founder of Equis Research, told TIME that concerns about economic pressure and enforcement tactics are disproportionately impacting Latino voters. A Univision/YouGov poll conducted between Oct. 2 and Oct. 15 revealed that 41% of registered Latino voters in Florida worried they or someone close to them could be detained by immigration enforcement, compared to 27% of voters overall. The same poll indicated that 4 in 10 Latino voters felt their finances had worsened over the past year, with 70% disapproving of Trump’s handling of the cost of living.

Plummeting Approval Ratings Test Incumbent Republicans

Polling data highlights a significant drop in Trump’s standing among Florida’s Latino electorate. Equis Research reported on dissatisfaction among the state’s Latino voters. A Pew Research Center poll showed a decline from 38% in February 2025 to 24% in September and October.

This political shift is directly impacting Republican campaigns in major districts. In Miami-Dade County’s majority-Latino 27th District, Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar broke with the administration in a September campaign ad, stating that Trump had gone too far with his deportation agenda and that Hispanic supporters felt betrayed. A September poll showed Salazar leading her Democratic challenger, Eliott Rodriguez, by just a single point.

Divergent Political Loyalties Shape State Legislative Contests

Despite mounting frustration, translating voter discontent into Democratic ballots remains complicated due to the diverse makeup of Florida’s Latino population. Guillermo Grenier, a professor of sociology at Florida International University, told TIME that while many Latinos are frustrated with Trump, South Florida’s 1.9 million Cuban Americans maintain deep-rooted Republican ties. An FIU Cuba poll in 2024 showed 68% of likely Cuban American voters in Miami-Dade County supported Trump.

With Gov. Ron DeSantis term-limited, the open gubernatorial race features Republican Byron Donalds, endorsed by Trump, against David Jolly, who is running as a Democrat. A Univision/YouGov poll found Latino voters favored Jolly over Donalds 48% to 43%, prompting the Democratic Governors Association to announce a $1 million investment on Oct. 20 to help close the gap before Election Day.

More on Trump: Trump Administration Challenges Ballots And Deploys Agents · Trump Sparks Backlash From California Leaders Over Rally Remarks · Judge Orders Trump Administration to Stop Favorable Government Ads