Follow TikTok – E24
- Storebrand economist Olav Chen suggests the popular video-sharing app TikTok could become a important factor in ongoing trade negotiations between China and the United States.
- Following a week of escalating trade tensions marked by tariff announcements, analysts are closely watching for the next moves from major economic players.
- Chief Economist Frank Jullum at Danske Bank anticipates potential responses from the European Union, including possible countermeasures or negotiation overtures with the U.S.
TikTok’s Potential Role in US-China Trade Talks
Storebrand economist Olav Chen suggests the popular video-sharing app TikTok could become a important factor in ongoing trade negotiations between China and the United States.
Following a week of escalating trade tensions marked by tariff announcements, analysts are closely watching for the next moves from major economic players.
EU Response and Negotiation Signals
Chief Economist Frank Jullum at Danske Bank anticipates potential responses from the European Union, including possible countermeasures or negotiation overtures with the U.S.
Jullum highlighted two key areas to monitor:
- Potential announcements of countermeasures.
- Updates regarding negotiation progress.
“Some parties are likely exploring what concessions they can offer the United States to avoid tariffs,” Jullum stated.
Chen: Tariffs as a Negotiation Tactic
Olav Chen, Head of Allocation and Global Interest Rates at Storebrand, believes reaching a swift agreement with the EU is unlikely. “While indications of ongoing negotiations would be a positive sign, the EU may delay its response for a month,” Chen told E24.
Chen noted China’s recent tariff response to the U.S., matching the 34 percent rate imposed earlier in the week, as a signal that China is neither escalating the conflict nor backing down.
“A different rate would have signaled a willingness to concede or escalate,” Chen explained.
TikTok in the Mix
Chen is also closely monitoring developments surrounding TikTok. According to a report in the Financial Times, former President Trump suggested a deal regarding the app’s ownership was nearing completion, perhaps influenced by the tariff situation.
“The tariffs are being used as a negotiating tactic to secure a favorable deal regarding TikTok,” Chen said.”However, China is unlikely to agree to a fire-sale price. Any agreement on tiktok could lead to tariff reductions for China. Therefore, monitoring tiktok’s situation this week and beyond is crucial.”
Norway’s Inflation Data Under Scrutiny Amid Global Economic Uncertainty
Oslo – Economists are closely watching Norway’s upcoming inflation figures for April, seeking confirmation of a potential shift in the nation’s core inflation rate. The data arrives as global economic headwinds, including trade tensions, add layers of complexity to monetary policy decisions.
Karine Alsvik, a macroeconomist at Handelsbanken, suggests the inflation numbers will either confirm or deny that the February inflation spike was a one-off event. “This release will either confirm that core inflation has stagnated or show that the February surprise was not an isolated incident,” Alsvik stated.
Norges Bank, the central bank, has projected an unchanged core inflation rate of 3.4%. However, the meaning of Norway’s April inflation data is being weighed against the backdrop of international trade disputes and their potential impact on the global economy.
Alsvik notes that Norges Bank has time to evaluate the situation, given the postponement of any interest rate adjustments until September. She emphasized that tariffs introduce increased uncertainty about growth prospects, which could influence the central bank’s future assessments.
Market Expectations and Potential Impact
DNB Markets anticipates a higher core inflation figure of 3.6%. The financial institution attributes the expected rise primarily to base effects related to food,beverages,clothing,footwear,furniture,and home goods.
“An outcome in line with our forecasts could push market expectations for interest rate cuts further into the future,” wrote Kyrre Aamdal, a senior economist at DNB Markets, in a research note.
Norges bank’s most recent interest rate forecast, issued in March, indicated two rate cuts this year.
Understanding Base Effects
Base effects refer to the impact that changes in price levels from a previous period can have on inflation measurements in subsequent periods.
The upcoming inflation data will be closely analyzed by economists and policymakers alike, as they navigate the complexities of domestic economic indicators and global economic uncertainties.
Global Economic Indicators in Focus This Week
Analysts are closely monitoring a series of key economic indicators this week, seeking insights into inflation trends, consumer sentiment, and the potential impact of tariffs on global markets.
Inflation Data Takes Center stage
Danske Bank’s Chief Economist Frank Jullum suggests that some April data may already be considered “yesterday’s news” by the time it is released. However, he emphasizes the significance of March inflation figures, particularly in Norway.
“The surprising figures for February ended up being among the main reasons why there was no interest rate cut,” Jullum said. ”If that number comes down to expectations, I think you want to praise a little more aggressive cuts from Norges Bank, and the opposite.”
Key Events This Week
Central Banks Navigating Conflicting Signals
The release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s previous meeting will be closely scrutinized for insights into the central bank’s outlook on inflation and growth.
following the last interest rate meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that tariff-related inflation effects could lead to higher inflation, resulting in an upward revision of the U.S. annual inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.7%. He later suggested that the impact of tariffs on inflation could be more significant than initially anticipated.
Elisabeth Holvik, economist at Handelsbanken, anticipates that the Fed minutes will provide clarity on the central bank’s approach to balancing price stability and economic growth. “They have guided two cuts this year. More people who only envision a cut.We look for details about how they look at the mandate for price stability and growth. They are now moving in their own direction,” Holvik stated.
Consumer Sentiment in Focus
The U.S. CPI (consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) data, scheduled for release on Thursday and Friday, will offer further indications of inflationary pressures.
Holvik suggests it may be premature to fully assess the impact of tariffs on producer prices but anticipates some upward pressure. Jullum, from Danske Bank, will be closely monitoring the U.S. consumer confidence report, due Friday, for signs of rising pessimism.
“It is indeed a survey and it is for April. There you may get more indications that pessimism is on the rise,” Jullum said.
Norway’s Inflation Data and Global Economic Concerns
The meaning of Norway’s April inflation data is being weighed against the backdrop of international trade disputes and their potential impact on the global economy.
Alsvik notes that Norges Bank has time to evaluate the situation, given the postponement of any interest rate adjustments until September. She emphasized that tariffs introduce increased uncertainty about growth prospects, which could influence the central bank’s future assessments.
Market Expectations and Potential Impact
DNB Markets anticipates a higher core inflation figure of 3.6%. The financial institution attributes the expected rise primarily to base effects related to food, beverages, clothing, footwear, furniture, and home goods.
“An outcome in line with our forecasts could push market expectations for interest rate cuts further into the future,” wrote Kyrre Aamdal, a senior economist at DNB Markets, in a research note.
Norges bank’s most recent interest rate forecast, issued in March, indicated two rate cuts this year.
Understanding Base Effects
Base effects refer to the impact that changes in price levels from a previous period can have on inflation measurements in subsequent periods.
The upcoming inflation data will be closely analyzed by economists and policymakers alike, as they navigate the complexities of domestic economic indicators and global economic uncertainties.
global Economic Indicators in Focus This Week
Analysts are closely monitoring a series of key economic indicators this week, seeking insights into inflation trends, consumer sentiment, and the potential impact of tariffs on global markets.
Inflation Data Takes Center Stage
Danske Bank’s Chief Economist Frank Jullum suggests that some April data may already be considered “yesterday’s news” by the time it is indeed released. However, he emphasizes the meaning of March inflation figures, notably in Norway.
“The surprising figures for February ended up being among the main reasons why there was no interest rate cut,” Jullum said. “If that number comes down to expectations, I think you want to praise a little more aggressive cuts from norges Bank, and the opposite.”
Key Events This Week
central Banks Navigating Conflicting Signals
The release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s previous meeting will be closely scrutinized for insights into the central bank’s outlook on inflation and growth.
following the last interest rate meeting,Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that tariff-related inflation effects could lead to higher inflation,resulting in an upward revision of the U.S. annual inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.7%.He later suggested that the impact of tariffs on inflation could be more meaningful than initially anticipated.
Elisabeth Holvik, economist at handelsbanken, anticipates that the Fed minutes will provide clarity on the central bank’s approach to balancing price stability and economic growth.”They have guided two cuts this year. More people who only envision a cut.We look for details about how they look at the mandate for price stability and growth. They are now moving in their own direction,” Holvik stated.
Consumer Sentiment in Focus
The U.S. CPI (consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) data, scheduled for release on Thursday and Friday, will offer further indications of inflationary pressures.
Holvik suggests it may be premature to fully assess the impact of tariffs on producer prices but anticipates some upward pressure.Jullum, from Danske Bank, will be closely monitoring the U.S.consumer confidence report, due Friday, for signs of rising pessimism.
“it is indeed indeed a survey and it is for April.There you may get more indications that pessimism is on the rise,” Jullum said.