France is bracing for continued unsettled weather throughout the week, with sustained rainfall, heavy snowfall in mountainous regions, and occasionally strong winds. While conditions remain unstable until Friday, a gradual improvement is anticipated.
The disruptions are expected to persist across much of the country, bringing a mix of showers, gusty winds, and snowfall at higher elevations. Temperatures are also set to decline, particularly in eastern France.
Monday, February 16: Heavy Rain and Mountain Snow
A rainy spell is settling in from the southwest to the center-east of France. Rainfall will be particularly heavy along the south Aquitaine coast, the western foothills of the Massif Central, and the Piedmont region of the Pyrenees. In the Pyrenees, substantial snowfall is forecast above 1,800 meters in the morning, with the rain-snow line dropping to 1,200 meters in the evening. In the Auvergne region, snow is expected around 1,200 meters during the day, falling to between 800 and 900 meters by the end of the day. Snowfall will begin at 900 to 1,000 meters in the eastern mountain ranges, and even as low as 800 meters in the Vosges mountains.
Further north, from the Gironde estuary to the northeastern borders, showers are expected, potentially accompanied by hail, and thunderstorms. Precipitation will also be heavy on the west of Corsica. The Mediterranean coastline will remain cloudy but dry and mild.
Westerly winds will be moderate to fairly strong across the country, with gusts of 50 to 60 km/h inland, 70 to 90 km/h on the Channel coast, and under the tramontane wind. The strongest gusts, reaching 100 to 120 km/h, are expected on Alpine peaks and Corsican capes. Low temperatures will hover around 0 degrees Celsius in Alsace-Lorraine and Hauts-de-France, 4 to 9 degrees Celsius in the northern half of the country, and 7 to 12 degrees Celsius in the south. High temperatures will range from 7 to 12 degrees Celsius in the north and 12 to 18 degrees Celsius in the south.
Tuesday, February 17: Still Rainy, But Relatively Mild
Cloudy skies will persist over the southwest quarter of France, with continued rainfall. Snowfall will occur at lower altitudes on the Vosges mountains. The rain-snow line will be around 600 to 800 meters on the northern Alps and approximately 1,500 meters on the Pyrenees.
On the northern half of the country, skies will alternate between clearings and passing showers. A new disturbance will move into Brittany in the evening. The southeastern quarter will maintain dry weather with partial sunshine. Corsica will remain unsettled with rain and a strong westerly wind. The tramontane wind will weaken after the morning.
Low temperatures will range from 1 to 5 degrees Celsius in the Grand Est and Normandy, to 4 to 10 degrees Celsius elsewhere, and 6 to 8 degrees Celsius in the southwest. High temperatures will be between 5 and 10 degrees Celsius in the north and 10 to 15 degrees Celsius in the south.
Wednesday, February 18: Drier Conditions in the South and Northeast
The country will continue to experience unsettled weather, with few regions spared. Rainfall will be widespread, and the higher elevations will see renewed snowfall. The minimal temperatures will drop notably in the northeast, between -1 and -6 degrees Celsius on the borders, -2 to -5 degrees Celsius moving towards the west, and 4 to 6 degrees Celsius in the southwest. Maximum temperatures will reach 14 to 19 degrees Celsius in the south and 5 to 12 degrees Celsius in the north.
Thursday, February 19: A Transition to Calmer Weather
Rainfall will gradually diminish throughout the day, with clearings developing. This day marks a transition towards more stable weather. Low temperatures will fall further in the east, ranging from -4 to -6 degrees Celsius on the borders, -2 to -5 degrees Celsius towards the west, and 4 to 6 degrees Celsius in the southwest. Maximum temperatures will slightly increase in inland areas while remaining stable on the coasts. The Mistral and Tramontane winds will remain strong around the Mediterranean.
Friday, February 20: Improvement Expected
The rainfall is expected to subside, with clearings becoming more prevalent. This signals a shift towards more settled conditions. Low temperatures will be observed, with a range of -1 to -6 degrees Celsius in the east, 0 to 2 degrees Celsius elsewhere, and 6 to 8 degrees Celsius in the southwest. Maximum temperatures will range from 14 to 19 degrees Celsius in the south and 5 to 12 degrees Celsius in the north.
Recent severe weather, including Storm Nils, has already caused fatalities in France and Spain, highlighting the potential dangers associated with these conditions. While the forecast suggests an improvement by Friday, continued vigilance is advised.
