Friends to All: Southeast Asia Diversifies, but ASEAN Falters
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Analysis of the 47th ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur (October 26-28, 2025), highlighting the bloc’s continued strategy of non-alignment amidst intensifying geopolitical rivalry.
Summit Overview: Balancing Act in a Contested Region
The outcomes of the 47th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit,held during intensifying US-China competition,did not reflect alignment with either superpower but a deeper commitment to avoid having to choose between the two. leaders of the group’s 11 members-enlarged following Timor Leste’s admission-convened October 26-28, 2025, in Kuala Lumpur for the region’s still-central political and economic forum. They openly hedged,accepting US market access and security cooperation while deepening economic entanglement with Beijing.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar bin Ibrahim embodied this approach in his opening remarks, in which he emphasized maintaining autonomy and called for “dialogue over coercion, balance over binaries, cooperation over confrontation”.
The Limits of Strategic Autonomy
However, the way in which the leaders maintained their balancing act dilutes ASEAN’s strategic autonomy and institutional clout. This is not a new progress.The bloc’s consensus-building model has historically constrained its ability to act decisively. Member states have found greater short-term incentives in bilateral deals than in collective bargaining, and greater leverage in playing the two superpowers off each other than in presenting a united front.
This dynamic is further intricate by the diverse national interests within ASEAN. For example, Singapore prioritizes strong economic ties with the US, while cambodia maintains close relations with China.The Philippines, facing territorial disputes in the South china Sea, relies on US security guarantees, creating internal tensions within the group. According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,this internal divergence hinders ASEAN’s ability to formulate a cohesive regional strategy.
Economic Entanglement with China
Despite security concerns, ASEAN’s economic ties with China continue to deepen. China is ASEAN’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching US$798.3 billion in 2023, according to Statista. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), led by China, further integrates ASEAN economies into China’s economic orbit.
This economic dependence creates a dilemma for ASEAN members. While they seek to diversify their