Fuel for Thought: Gasoline Prices Hit the Brakes on September 18
World Oil Prices Experience Slight Decline Amid Rising US Inventories
Global oil prices have witnessed a slight decline following the release of data indicating an increase in US oil and gas inventories. However, domestic oil prices are expected to rise after experiencing four consecutive declines.
Global Oil Prices
As of 5:30 a.m. on September 18 (Vietnam time), WTI oil prices decreased by less than 10 cents, while Brent oil prices remained steady at $73.7 per barrel, according to Oilprice.
The increase in US gasoline and oil inventories did not significantly impact oil prices during the September 17 trading session. However, it led to a slight decline in oil prices during the early hours of September 18.
Despite this, oil prices rose by over 1% during the September 17 trading session due to supply disruptions and traders’ expectations of increased demand if the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cuts interest rates.
Key Statistics
- Brent crude rose by 95 cents, or 1.3%, to $73.70 per barrel.
- US West Texas Intermediate crude rose by $1.10, or 1.6%, to $71.41 per barrel.
- Both benchmarks reached their highest levels for the month so far.
The decline in oil production in the US Gulf Coast due to Hurricane Francine, which has not been fully restored, has contributed to the rise in oil prices over the past four sessions. This has helped recover some of the losses after hitting a near three-year low in the previous trading session a week ago.
Rising tensions in the Middle East and supply disruptions in Libya have also supported oil prices, according to analysts at AEGIS Hedging and Rystad.
Libya’s crude oil exports tripled last week to approximately 550,000 barrels per day, but this figure is only about half of the amount exported last month (over 1 million barrels per day), as reported by Reuters, citing data from Kpler.
Market Expectations and Demand
Investors are hopeful that the Fed’s rate cut could help revive demand in the world’s top oil consumer. Markets are currently pricing in a 69% chance that the US central bank will cut interest rates by 50 basis points.
A rate cut of up to half a percentage point could weaken the dollar and boost oil and other dollar-denominated commodities, according to independent energy and shipping analyst Matias Togni.
Lower US interest rates will push the US dollar down, supporting demand for oil and other commodities priced in dollars.
There are also signs of improving demand in China, the world’s top oil importer, with the East Asian nation’s imports approaching their highest level this year – over 11 million barrels per day this month.
Domestic Gasoline Prices
Domestic retail prices of gasoline on September 18 are as follows:
- E5 RON 92 gasoline: not more than 18,890 VND/liter
- RON 95-III gasoline: not more than 19,635 VND/liter
- Diesel oil: not more than 17,165 VND/liter
- Kerosene: not more than 17,790 VND/liter
- Fuel oil: not exceeding 14,467 VND/kg
The above domestic retail prices of gasoline and oil will be adjusted by the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Trade in the price adjustment session on the afternoon of September 19.
Due to the increase in world gasoline and oil prices last week after three weeks of decline, and the maintenance of the upward trend in recent trading sessions, domestic gasoline and oil prices are likely to record their first increase in the most recent adjustments.
