Future Warfare: Choke Points, Not Cities | The Cipher Brief
- The West's reliance on efficient, large-scale systems has created vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure, making it a prime target in modern conflict.
- Ukraine's dependence on Starlink,the Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack,and the SolarWinds hack illustrate a shift toward disruption as a primary weapon,rather than outright destruction.
- Russia's war in Ukraine highlighted the importance of Starlink for military coordination and civilian communication after terrestrial networks were damaged.
Modern warfare is no longer about cities. It’s about strategic choke points. Critical infrastructure’s role is now exposed: cloud systems, energy networks, and satellite systems are prime targets. Cyberattacks and sabotage are the new weapons of choice, exploiting vulnerabilities for widespread disruption. The West’s reliance on centralized systems creates weaknesses adversaries are eager to exploit. Russia, China, and others are already employing these tactics, disrupting supply chains and eroding trust. News Directory 3 explores the need for a resilience doctrine, encompassing redundancy and diversification to counter these evolving threats. Nations must prioritize infrastructure resilience. Discover what’s next in this critical shift.
Critical Infrastructure’s role Exposed in Modern Conflict
The West’s reliance on efficient, large-scale systems has created vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure, making it a prime target in modern conflict. These weaknesses, embedded in cloud systems, energy networks, undersea cables, and satellite systems, become apparent only when they fail, leading to notable consequences.
Ukraine’s dependence on Starlink,the Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack,and the SolarWinds hack illustrate a shift toward disruption as a primary weapon,rather than outright destruction. This new form of conflict exploits the strategic role of infrastructure.
Russia’s war in Ukraine highlighted the importance of Starlink for military coordination and civilian communication after terrestrial networks were damaged. Though, the reliance on a private, largely unaccountable entity creates a geopolitical chokepoint.
China’s Volt Typhoon APT has compromised critical infrastructure in the West, including energy, transportation, communications, and water sectors, positioning itself for potential disruption. Salt Typhoon,while focused on espionage,has targeted telecommunications in ways that could be weaponized.
The 2021 Colonial Pipeline attack, the 2022 Amazon Web Services outage, and the 2020 SolarWinds hack demonstrate how centralization can enable widespread disruption.These incidents serve as warnings of future threats.
Conventional Western military doctrine emphasizes kinetic parity, but adversaries are increasingly using disruption tactics that are cheap, deniable, and effective. These tactics break continuity and erode trust in systems.
A fiber cut can disrupt supply chains, GPS spoofing can misguide autonomous systems, and a corrupted DNS entry can undermine public trust. China, russia, Iran, and cybercriminal cartels understand this and aim to quietly disable key systems.
The West Needs a Resilience Doctrine
A comprehensive doctrine for infrastructure survivability in hybrid warfare is needed. This requires a strategic shift toward redundancy, diversification, and graceful degradation in national security planning.
Key steps include diversifying critical dependencies, mapping and understanding chokepoints, enforcing resilient-by-design architecture, embedding graceful degradation, and integrating resilience into alliances.
Strategic deterrence in the 21st century relies on resilience. Systems must resist, reroute, absorb shock, and continue functioning under strain. Cyberattacks and infrastructure sabotage are operational tools being used now.
To maintain continuity and deterrence, infrastructure must be defended as a frontline.
What’s next
Nations must prioritize infrastructure resilience to counter evolving threats and maintain stability in an increasingly interconnected world. Focus shoudl be on proactive measures to identify and mitigate vulnerabilities.