Gastric Cancer Rates Worldwide: Global Estimates & Prevention
Projected Lifetime Gastric cancer Incidence in Contemporary Birth Cohorts: A Global Modelling study
Table of Contents
Abstract
Background: Gastric cancer remains a significant global health burden, with incidence varying substantially by region adn risk factor prevalence. We aimed to estimate the lifetime risk of gastric cancer for individuals born between 2008 and 2017, accounting for current prevention practices and projecting future incidence based on demographic shifts and existing trends.
Methods: We utilized GLOBOCAN 2022 data and united Nations population projections to estimate the total number of gastric cancer cases expected in individuals aged 84 years (representing a typical lifespan) born between 2008 and 2017. This was compared to GLOBOCAN estimates to calculate a ‘ratio of change’. Correlation with country-specific Human Development Index (HDI) was assessed using Pearson’s coefficient. Uncertainty was incorporated through simulation, combining GLOBOCAN incidence uncertainties and UN mortality projections. Sensitivity and stratified analyses were performed to assess the impact of varying disease burden, life expectancy, and cancer control practices.
Results: [Results will be populated in the final polished version – placeholder for now].
Conclusion: [Conclusion will be populated in the final polished version – placeholder for now]. These findings highlight the continued need for targeted gastric cancer prevention strategies, particularly in regions with high incidence and low HDI.
Introduction
Gastric cancer is the fifth most commonly diagnosed cancer and the fourth leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide.1 Despite declining incidence in several regions, it remains a major public health challenge, particularly in East Asia, Eastern Europe, and South America.2 The etiology of gastric cancer is multifactorial, with Helicobacter pylori infection, diet, genetics, and lifestyle factors playing crucial roles.3 Significant progress has been made in understanding and addressing these risk factors, including H. pylori eradication programs and improved dietary recommendations. Though, ample regional disparities persist in both incidence and survival rates.
Accurately projecting the future burden of gastric cancer is essential for informing public health policy and resource allocation. Lifetime risk estimates, calculated for specific birth cohorts, provide a valuable metric for understanding the potential impact of current prevention strategies and identifying populations at greatest risk. this study aims to estimate the lifetime risk of developing gastric cancer for individuals born between 2008 and 2017, considering current prevention practices and projecting future incidence based on demographic shifts and existing trends. We hypothesize that lifetime risk will vary significantly by country, correlated with socioeconomic development as measured by the Human Development Index (HDI).
methods
Data Sources
We utilized data from the GLOBOCAN 2022 database, which provides estimates of cancer incidence, mortality, and prevalence for 185 countries and regions.4 Population projections, including all-cause mortality rates, were obtained from the United Nations (UN) World Population Prospects 2022 revision (median variant).5 Country-specific HDI data were sourced from the United Nations development Program (UNDP).6
Lifetime Risk Estimation
We estimated the lifetime number of gastric cancer cases for individuals born between 2008 and 2017,assuming they reach the age of 84 years. This age was chosen to represent a typical lifespan in many developed countries. for each country, we calculated the expected number of cases by multiplying the age-specific incidence rates from GLOBOCAN 2022 by the projected population size for each age group (0-84 years) based on UN population projections. The total number of cases was then summed across all age groups.
We compared this estimated number of cases to the total number of cases as estimated in the GLOBOCAN database for the corresponding age group (0-84 years) to calculate a ‘ratio of change’. this ratio represents the expected change in the number of cases based on our projections, relative to current estimates.
Statistical Analysis
The correlation between the ‘ratio of change’ and country-specific HDI was calculated using Pearson’s coefficient (r).Country-specific 95% Uncertainty Intervals (UIs) for the average number of expected cases were obtained using simulation.This simulation combined the uncertainty in the gastric cancer incidence estimates from GLOBOCAN 2022 (central estimates and 95% UI) and all-cause mortality projections from the UN (median variant and 95% UI). We assumed these two sources of uncertainty were independent. No trends in age-specific gastric cancer incidence rates were considered.
Sensitivity and Stratified analyses
We conducted sensitivity analyses to quantify how much our estimates are affected by varying patterns of disease burden, life expectancy, and cancer control practice. We also performed stratified analyses by sex and world region (as