Gaza’s health ministry, often scrutinized for its reporting on casualties during the ongoing conflict, has significantly underreported the death toll, according to a new independent study. The research, published Wednesday in The Lancet Global Health, estimates that approximately 35% to 40% of deaths in the Gaza Strip have gone unrecorded by local authorities.
The study attributes this undercounting to the chaotic conditions within Gaza, making it difficult to locate and identify bodies amidst the rubble. The deaths of entire families often go unreported, as there is no one left to formally declare the loss. This finding corroborates previous analyses published in scientific literature.
Researchers estimate that, as of January 5, 2025, between 75,000 people have been killed in the first 16 months of the conflict, a figure substantially higher than the approximately 50,000 deaths previously announced by local authorities. Between October 7, 2023, and January 5, 2025, the study found 42,200 women, children, and elderly people died – comprising 56% of violent deaths in Gaza.
The findings come after years of official questioning of data released by Gaza’s health ministry. However, a recent shift in perspective emerged last month when a senior Israeli security officer reportedly told Israeli journalists that the figures compiled by health authorities in Gaza were broadly accurate.
Separate research, published in January 2025 by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and also appearing in The Lancet, estimated 64,260 “traumatic injury deaths” in Gaza between October 7, 2023, and June 30, 2024. At the time, the Palestinian Ministry of Health reported 37,877 deaths, indicating an underreporting rate of approximately 41%. As of October 2024, the study suggested the number of Gazans killed by violence exceeded 70,000.
The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine study also highlighted that the total death toll is likely even higher, as its analysis does not account for deaths caused by disruptions to healthcare, insufficient food and water, and the spread of disease. The researchers found that around 3% of Gaza’s population had died due to violence, with 59% of those fatalities being women, children, and the elderly.
The discrepancy between reported figures and the study’s estimates is attributed to the widespread destruction of Gaza’s healthcare infrastructure, hindering the ability to accurately count the dead amidst ongoing bombardment. The research team included an economist, demographer, epidemiologist, and survey specialists.
While the exact death toll remains a point of contention, these studies provide a more comprehensive understanding of the devastating human cost of the conflict in Gaza. The findings underscore the challenges of accurately documenting casualties in active war zones and the importance of independent verification of data.
