In a significant political development, the conservative party led by Friedrich Merz secured a victory in Germany’s legislative elections on Sunday. The Alternativ für Deutschland (AfD), a far-right party, achieved its highest historical result, marking a substantial shift in the country’s political landscape. This result has far-reaching implications for both Germany and the broader European Union, potentially altering the dynamics of transatlantic relations.[2]According to exit polls broadcast by public television channels ARD and ZDF, the CDU/CSU (Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union) parties garnered between 28.5% and 29% of the vote. AfD obtained between 19.5% and 20%, an unprecedented result for a far-right party in a federal election since the end of World War II. Alice Weidel, the co-leader of AfD, declared, “We have never been so strong at the national level.”

The AfD, founded in 2013, has more than doubled its support over this period, capitalizing on anti-immigrant sentiments and pro-Russian sympathies. This surge in support for the far-right indicates a growing distaste for the mainstream parties, particularly the Social Democratic Party (SPD), which has historically enjoyed significant voter support. Harald Rozen, a political analyst at the University of Berlin, notes, “The rise of AfD reflects a broader discontent with established politics, much like we’ve seen with movements such as Brexit in the United Kingdom and Donald Trump’s rise in the United States.”

Friedrich Merz, the head of the CDU/CSU, is poised to become Germany’s next Chancellor, replacing the outgoing SPD leader, Olaf Scholz. Merz has explicitly ruled out any coalition with AfD, despite the far-right party’s significant gains. Scholz, meanwhile, faces a massive setback, with his party getting only between 16% and 16.5% of the vote, down from 25.7% in 2021. This decline marks the worst performance for the SPD since World War II, raising questions about the future of the party’s leadership and its position in German politics. Yannick Dörr, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, observed, “This is a crushing defeat for the SPD and signals a potential realignment of the German political spectrum.”

These elections took place in a tumultuous context, with Germany grappling with an economic recession, trade wars, and the threat of a faltering transatlantic alliance. The war in Ukraine and the resultant elevation of Russian tensions add to the country’s security concerns. Daniel Baumgartner, a voter from Berlin, noted, “We are going through a very uncertain period. The country needs a change, a transformation,” highlighting concerns about European security amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Merz, the conservative candidate, was optimistic and visibly relaxed as he cast his vote in Arnsberg, a town in the western part of Germany. His rival, Olaf Scholz, appeared more somber as he voted in Potsdam, near Berlin. The stark contrast in their demeanor reflects the differing fates that await them: Merz on the cusp of power, Scholz facing potential political oblivion.

Election Day Dynamics

The elections highlighted the destabilizing impact of recent crises on German society. Economic instability, security concerns, and the resurgence of right-wing movements across Europe have placed immense strain on the existing political framework. Peter Lyon, a European affairs analyst, posits, “These elections reflect a broader frustration among European voters, who see their traditional political parties as out of touch and ineffective in addressing current challenges, comparing the situation to the domestic U.S. political landscape.

As Germany grapples with these issues, it has established itself as a critical player in the European political arena. The country’s struggles have significant implications for the broader European community, especially in the context of the European Union. The Brexit referendum was the watershed event for EU, weakening its collective punch in response to Russian aggression.

We are going through a very uncertain periodnoted in Berlin
Daniel Hofmann, met at the exit of a polling station.

The Role of External Influences

While domestic issues clearly played a significant role in shaping the election outcomes, external influences, particularly from the United States, also had a substantial impact. Donald Trump’s allies, including Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, actively promoted AfD’s campaign. Musk, through his platform X, repeatedly endorsed Alice Weidel, the leader of AfD, in a highly visible and controversial move. Musk’s apparent push-backed by growing fear of migrants and Russian expansion.
Musk tweeted again on the night of Saturday to Sunday in a message with German flags.

He included
“AfD!”

The Political Implications:

Germany faces a protracted period of uncertainty as the formation of a new government is anticipated to take weeks, if not months. The parliamentary system in Germany mandates a series of negotiations to form a stable coalition, a process that can be lengthy and fraught with challenges. FDP liberals, a former partner of the Scholz government, are currently in a precarious position, unsure whether they will cross the 5% threshold needed to enter the Bundestag, the lower house of Parliament. This uncertainty could further complicate the coalition-building process, necessitating the inclusion of additional parties and potentially prolonging the negotiations.

BJ Friedmann, a Merkel administration mensch posits, “If the conservatives are unable to secure a clear majority, they will need to engage in complex negotiations, much like the Democrats and the Republicans experienced in the U.S. when trying to pass critical legislation like the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act.
Furthermore, the evolving landscape of European politics, with the rise of far-right movements and the decline of traditional centrist parties, presents new challenges and opportunities. The U.S., as a key transatlantic ally, will need to closely monitor these developments and adapt its policies accordingly. The shifting political dynamics in Germany and the rest of Europe could have profound implications for trade, security, and diplomatic relations, reinforcing the importance of a strong and cooperative alliance between the U.S. and its European partners.

Olaf Scholz is in disarray and a historically low performance marks the party’s decline.

Additionally, the geopolitical implications of the rise of right-wing movements, coupled with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, add layers of complexity to the situation. Germany’s decision to phase out Russian energy sources and its role in hosting more than a million Ukrainian refugees underscore the humanitarian and economic challenges it faces. As Germany reshapes its political landscape, the broader European Union will be watching closely, with many questioning the future trajectory of Germany’s leadership and its role in addressing global issues.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. What were teh key results of Germany’s 2025 legislative elections?

• The Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) led by Friedrich Merz emerged victorious in the legislative elections, securing between 28.5% and 29% of the vote, according to exit polls from ARD and ZDF.

• The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved its highest result in history with 19.5% to 20% of the vote,positioning the party second in the election.

• Merz is set to become Chancellor, while olaf Scholz and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) suffered a significant defeat, receiving only 16% to 16.5% of the vote.

2. Why did the AfD gain significant support in these elections?

• Founded in 2013, AfD has more than doubled its support by capitalizing on anti-immigrant sentiments and pro-Russian sympathies. Harald Rozen, a political analyst at the University of Berlin, likens the rise of AfD to other populist movements worldwide, such as Brexit and Donald Trump’s rise in the U.S.[[

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3. What are the implications for Germany’s political landscape?

• Merkel-era partner SPD is facing existential questions, marking its lowest point as World War II. Yannick Dörr from the German Marshall Fund considers this a potential realignment of the German political spectrum.

• The rise of AfD and right-wing parties across Europe reflect broader frustration among voters with customary political entities. European affairs analyst Peter Lyon comments on the alignment with the U.S. political frustration.

4. How do economic and geopolitical factors influence these election results?

• Germany was grappling with an economic recession,trade wars,and the threat of a faltering transatlantic alliance. The war in Ukraine and tensions with Russia have further elaborate the security scenario. A Berlin voter,Daniel Baumgartner,expressed uncertainty,highlighting the need for a transformation in the country.

5. What external influences played a role in these elections?

• Support from figures like Donald Trump’s allies, including Elon Musk, who endorsed AfD, highlighted external influences on these elections. Musk’s support for AfD candidate Alice Weidel on his social media platform X was significant.

6. What are the political implications of these election results?

• The new goverment’s formation may take weeks or months due to Germany’s complex parliamentary coalition-building process. The conservative parties will likely need to engage in negotiations to secure a majority. The uncertain position of the FDP, a former coalition partner, coudl complicate matters further.

• The rise of right-wing parties across Europe poses challenges and opportunities, influencing transatlantic relations and global politics.

7. How does Germany’s political shift affect its role in the European Union?

• Germany’s political changes follow the EU’s struggles with events like Brexit, which weakened the union’s collective stance on Russian aggression. The broader European Union watches closely, with implications for Germany’s leadership and role in addressing global issues.

Conclusion

The 2025 German elections signify a historic shift with significant effects on Germany’s domestic and international policies. As the country navigates economic challenges, geopolitical tensions, and right-wing political ascendancy, the international community, especially transatlantic allies, will closely monitor developments. The political landscape in Germany is highly likely to evolve as new coalitions form, perhaps altering European and global dynamics.