Berlin is accelerating preparations for a potential large-scale conflict with Russia, a shift in strategy prompted by concerns that Moscow could reconstitute its military capabilities and pose a renewed threat to NATO by as early as 2029. A comprehensive 1,200-page military plan, known as Operation Plan Deutschland (OPLAN DEU), details how approximately 800,000 German, US, and NATO troops would be moved across German territory towards the eastern flank in the event of a Russian attack.
The plan, designed by a team of senior officers at the Julius Leber Barracks in Berlin, identifies key transportation routes – including ports, rail networks, rivers, and highways – crucial for the rapid deployment of allied forces. According to officials involved in drafting the plan, the goal is to deter aggression by demonstrating to potential adversaries that an attack would not be successful. “The goal is to prevent war by making it clear to our enemies that if they attack us, they won’t be successful,” one senior German Armed Forces officer stated.
The scale of OPLAN DEU marks one of Berlin’s most extensive defense planning efforts since the Cold War. It reflects a growing anxiety within Germany and across Europe regarding Russia’s intentions following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly four years ago. The plan’s development also comes amid a surge in reported espionage and infrastructure attacks, leading German intelligence to believe the timeline for a potential Russian threat may be sooner than initially anticipated.
OPLAN DEU goes beyond simply charting troop movements. It assigns responsibilities across a broad spectrum of government agencies and the civilian sector, requiring seamless coordination between the military, police, hospitals, transport companies, port operators, and rail providers. This integrated approach recognizes that a conflict would necessitate a whole-of-society response.
However, realizing the plan’s ambitions requires significant investment in infrastructure. Berlin estimates that roughly one-fifth of its motorways and more than a quarter of its bridges require renovation. North Sea and Baltic ports will need approximately 15 billion euros ($17.3 billion) in improvements to handle the anticipated influx of personnel and equipment. These infrastructural deficiencies highlight the challenges inherent in preparing for a large-scale conventional conflict in a relatively short timeframe.
A confidential government document seen by POLITICO details that German military planners now view recent cyberattacks, sabotage, and disinformation campaigns not as isolated incidents, but as potential opening salvos in a broader conflict. This assessment signifies a fundamental shift in thinking, placing such “hybrid measures” directly within the logic of military escalation. The document frames Germany as a critical operational base and transit corridor for NATO forces, making it a likely early target for conventional attacks, particularly against both military and civilian infrastructure.
The OPLAN lays out a five-phase escalation model, beginning with early threat detection and deterrence, progressing through national defense and NATO collective defense, and culminating in post-conflict recovery. This phased approach underscores the complexity of anticipating and responding to a potential Russian attack, and the need for a flexible and adaptable defense strategy.
The geographical realities of Europe also play a crucial role in the plan. As Tim Stuchtey of the Brandenburg Institute for Society and Security explained to the Wall Street Journal, the Alps effectively block southern routes, meaning that allied forces “would have to cross Germany … regardless of where [a conflict] might start.” This geographical constraint reinforces Germany’s central importance as a logistical hub for NATO in any potential conflict scenario.
The evolving security landscape has also prompted a reassessment of potential vulnerabilities. On , Russia expelled a German diplomat, accusing Berlin of “spy mania,” in a tit-for-tat move following similar actions by Germany. This escalating diplomatic tension underscores the heightened level of distrust and the potential for further escalation between the two countries.
While OPLAN DEU represents a significant step in Germany’s defense planning, its success hinges on sustained investment, effective coordination, and a clear understanding of the evolving threat landscape. The plan’s emphasis on deterrence and preparedness reflects a growing recognition within Germany and across NATO that the risk of conflict with Russia, while not imminent, is a serious and growing concern.
