The global economy is demonstrating unexpected resilience in the face of geopolitical uncertainty, but a period of sustained turbulence lies ahead, according to recent reports. While growth has so far defied predictions of a sharp slowdown, a confluence of factors – including increasing economic fragmentation, the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence, and mounting fiscal pressures – threatens to disrupt this stability.
As we approach , the global economy continues to cruise at around 3% growth, despite ongoing “geopolitical noise,” according to analysis from CaixaBank Research published on . This resilience is partly attributed to a milder-than-expected impact from recent tariff increases and the ability of businesses to adapt to the evolving economic landscape. The disparities in growth rates, however, remain significant, with Europe lagging at 1.3%, the US at 1.8%, and Asia leading the way at 4.5%.
This positive outlook is tempered by growing concerns about the long-term stability of the global order. The World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Global Risks Report 2026 identifies geoeconomic confrontation, interstate conflict, and extreme weather as the top risks facing the world. Over 1,300 global experts contributed to the report, which highlights the convergence of geopolitical, societal, environmental, and technological disruptions.
The WEF report paints a largely negative outlook, with 50% of respondents characterizing the short-term outlook (to 2028) as “Turbulent” or “Stormy,” and 57% holding a similar view for the long-term (to 2036). This pessimism stems from a perceived erosion of traditional norms and a lack of respect for established relationships, fueling anxieties about the macro environment. The report emphasizes that these risks, if realized, could negatively impact a significant portion of global GDP, population, or natural resources.
The reordering of the global economy is a key concern. The CaixaBank Research report highlights the importance of managing the increasing division between economic blocs. This fragmentation poses challenges to trade, investment, and overall economic growth. The WEF report echoes this sentiment, noting that confrontation is putting pressure on historic relationships and creating a sense of unease.
The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) is another critical factor. While AI offers significant potential benefits, its rapid development also presents challenges. The CaixaBank Research report suggests that how the rise of AI is managed will be crucial for future growth and welfare. The report doesn’t elaborate on the specific challenges, but the implication is that careful consideration must be given to the societal and economic impacts of this technology.
Fiscal challenges are also weighing on the global economic outlook. The CaixaBank Research report points to the need to address these challenges in a context of increasing complexity. Without further detail, it’s difficult to assess the specific nature of these fiscal pressures, but they likely relate to government debt levels and the need for sustainable fiscal policies.
Despite these headwinds, the global economy has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to outperform expectations. The CaixaBank Research report notes a pattern of underestimating the ability of economic agents to deal with uncertainty and make decisions in times of instability. This suggests that the current resilience may persist for longer than some anticipate.
However, the WEF report cautions against complacency. The lack of predictability in world events and the shifting geopolitical landscape create a volatile environment. Executives are urged to evaluate the implications of these risks for their organizations, both in the near-term and the long-term. The report’s focus on systemic risks – those that could have widespread and significant consequences – underscores the importance of proactive risk management.
The McKinsey & Company Global Economics Intelligence executive summary, released in , further emphasizes the need for vigilance. While not providing specific details, the summary suggests a complex and evolving economic landscape requiring careful monitoring and strategic adaptation.
the global economy is currently navigating a period of resilience amidst growing uncertainty. While short-term growth remains positive, a range of interconnected risks – including geoeconomic confrontation, the rise of AI, and fiscal challenges – threaten to disrupt this stability. The ability to manage these challenges will be crucial for ensuring sustainable growth and welfare in the years to come. The prevailing sentiment among experts, however, is one of caution, with a majority anticipating a turbulent future.
