Global Markets on High Alert: Will the Fed Meeting Spark a Stock Market Surge or Send Shockwaves
Global Stock Market Trends: A Weekly Analysis
Stock markets worldwide experienced a general rise, particularly in developed markets like the US and Europe, supported by the recovery of semiconductor stocks and the European Central Bank’s interest rate cut.
The Indian and Indonesian stock markets saw significant increases due to foreign investment funds making net purchases, driven by expectations of a 1.25% interest rate cut by the Fed this year, leading to a depreciation of the dollar and an influx of money into Asia.
This week’s Fed meeting results, interest rate perspective, and economic outlook will be crucial in determining the market’s direction. A mixed investment strategy is recommended, focusing on growth countries like India and Vietnam, and defensive stocks like Healthcare.
Bond Market Analysis
The US government bond yields decreased for 2-year and 10-year maturities to 3.58% and 3.66%, respectively, following inflation reports that met market expectations, leading to expectations of a 1.25% interest rate cut by the Fed this year.
A positive view is maintained on medium to long-term debt instruments.
Regional Stock Market Analysis
Thailand Stock Market (Slightly Overweight)
The Thai stock market remains flat after a significant rise, with positive momentum expected in the short term due to supportive measures, low valuation, and recovering profit trends.
Recommend buying and collecting BTK gradually.
Vietnam Stock Market (Slightly Overweight)
The Vietnam stock market declined for the third consecutive week, entering correction mode, but with a recovering economic trend and cheap valuation, it is recommended to let profits run and buy more to build up gradually.
Short-term hopes for the index to break through the resistance level of 1,300 points.
Chinese Stock Market (Slightly Overweight)
The Chinese stock market fell due to uneven economic recovery, with economists lowering GDP forecasts to less than 5% and some financial institutions reducing their weight and forecasts for Chinese stocks.
However, with cheap valuations and raised earnings forecasts, especially in the Hong Kong stock market, gradual purchase is recommended for MEGA10CHINA-A.
US Stock Market (Neutral)
The US stock market recovered significantly, supported by the recovery of semiconductor stocks, but with a neutral view due to the risk of economic recession and potential downside risk.