Global Surge in Metabolic Liver Disease: Projections and Risks

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is projected to affect 1.8 billion people worldwide by 2050, according to research published in the journal Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology.

The findings, derived from the global burden of diseases, injuries and risk factors study (GBD), indicate a projected 42% increase in cases from 2023 levels. This growth is attributed to global population increases combined with lifestyle changes, specifically rising obesity and high blood sugar levels.

MASLD, which was previously known as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), has emerged as one of the most prevalent and rapidly expanding liver conditions globally.

Current Global Prevalence

Latest estimates indicate that 1.3 billion people are currently living with MASLD, meaning approximately one in six people, or 16% of the global population, are affected.

This represents a 143% increase over three decades. In 1990, the study found that approximately 500 million people lived with the condition.

By 2023, the global prevalence rate reached 14,429 cases per 100,000 people, which is a 29% increase compared to 1990.

Primary Drivers and Risk Factors

The research identifies specific modifiable risk factors driving the increase in MASLD-related health problems. High blood sugar was identified as the leading driver, followed by high body mass index (BMI) and smoking.

The condition’s impact varies across different demographic groups. While the highest prevalence rates are found in older adults between the ages of 80 and 84, the largest total number of affected individuals are younger.

Among men, the highest number of cases occurs in the 35 to 39 age group, while for women, the largest number of affected individuals are between 55 and 59 years old. The study also noted that MASLD is more common in men than in women.

Clinical Impact and Mortality

Beyond prevalence, MASLD has become a significant contributor to severe liver pathology. Research published in Prev Med Rep on September 18, 2025, notes that MASLD has become the fastest-growing cause of liver-related mortality.

The condition is a major contributor to several critical health outcomes, including:

• Primary liver cancer
• End-stage liver disease
• Liver-related death

The scale of the issue is highlighted by reporting from The Economic Times, which noted that 1.3 billion people are already affected, warning that dietary habits and lifestyle choices may further worsen the risk.

Public health concerns are further amplified by the difficulty of early detection. Reporting from The Sun indicates that a third of cases of deadly liver disease not triggered by alcohol consumption are missed until it is too late.