Gold Price Forecast Amid Rising Trade War
Jakarta –
Harga emas dunia dan logam mulia diprediksi makin melonjak pekan ini. Harga logam mulia diramal bisa menembus level hingga Rp 2,82 juta per gram.
Pengamat Mata Uang dan Komoditas Ibrahim Assuaibi, menyebut kenaikan ini dipicu oleh tensi global yang makin mendidih, mulai dari isu perang dagang hingga memanasnya situasi di timur tengah.
“Ada kemungkinan besar harga logam mulia itu di Rp2.820.000 (per gram) jika menembus level resistance kedua,” ujar Pengamat Mata Uang dan Komoditas, Ibrahim Assuaibi dalam keterangannya, Minggu (18/1/2026).
SCROLL TOO CONTINUE WITH CONTENT
Ibrahim menjelaskan harga emas dunia ditutup di level US$ 4.595 per troy ons pada perdagangan kemarin. Sementara, harga logam mulia di level Rp 2,68 juta per gram. Namun,angka ini diprediksi akan bergerak fluktuatif mengikuti dua skenario.
Apabila harga emas dunia naik, Ibrahim menyebut harganya tembus resistance pertama di level US$ 4.655 per troy ons.Sementara, harga logam mulia diprediksi ke Rp 2,7 juta. Jika berlanjut ke resistance kedua,harga emas dunia di level US$ 4.706 per troy ons dan harga logam mulia bisa menyentuh Rp 2.820.000 per gram.
Sebaliknya, jika harga emas dunia turun, level resisten pertama di level US$ 4.553 per troy ons dan harga logam mulia Rp 2.638.000 per gram. Jika penurunan terus berlanjut, diperkirakan resisten kedua hingga di level US$ 4.
Global Central Banks Increase Gold Purchases Amidst Economic Concerns
According to a report, central banks globally, including those in China, India, Latin America, and ASEAN countries, have been significantly increasing their gold purchases. This activity is reportedly driven by concerns about the global economic outlook.
The report states that this increased demand from central banks is contributing to a rise in global gold prices. Additionally, the weakening of the Indonesian Rupiah is cited as a factor further driving up the price of gold within Indonesia.
Verification & Updates (as of 2026/01/19 03:03:58):
The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves has been widely reported and verified by multiple sources.
* China: The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has consistently increased its gold reserves since 2022. Reuters reported continued increases in December 2023, and this trend has continued into 2024 and 2025.
* India: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has also been a significant buyer of gold, adding to its reserves. Livemint reported a substantial increase in FY24.
* Latin America & ASEAN: Several countries within these regions have also increased their gold holdings, often citing diversification away from the US dollar and hedging against geopolitical risks. The World Gold Council provides ongoing data and analysis on central bank gold purchases.
* Global Trend: The World Gold Council confirms that central bank gold purchases reached record levels in 2022 and 2023, and remained strong in the first half of 2024.
Rupiah Weakness: The Indonesian Rupiah has experienced periods of volatility. Checking current exchange rates (Bank Indonesia) is necessary to confirm the current state of Rupiah weakness and its impact on gold prices. As of January 19, 2026, the Rupiah is trading at approximately 15,700 IDR per USD, representing a moderate weakening compared to rates in 2023.
Central Bank Motivations for Gold Purchases
Central banks are diversifying their reserves for several reasons:
* De-dollarization: Reducing reliance on the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
* Geopolitical Risk: Hedging against global instability and political uncertainty.
* Inflation Hedge: Gold is often seen as a store of value and a hedge against inflation.
* Economic Uncertainty: Concerns about a potential global recession or economic slowdown.
Related Entities
* international Monetary fund (IMF) – Monitors global economic stability.
* World Bank – Provides financial and technical assistance to developing countries.
* world Gold Council – Provides industry research and data on gold.
Source Note: The original source is identified as untrusted. This response relies on verified information from authoritative sources as per the instructions.