Gold’s remarkable surge over the past year has prompted a wave of activity in the market, with investors both cashing in on profits and anticipating further gains. The international price of an ounce has risen from $2,000 in February 2025 to $5,000 currently, a trend mirrored in Romania where the price of a gram has increased from approximately 413 lei to 755 lei as of January 29, 2026.
Despite recent volatility, experts suggest that a long-term investment horizon is key, with some predicting a doubling of prices within the next five years. This bullish outlook is fueled by a confluence of factors, including central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and a weakening U.S. Dollar.
Expert Forecasts Point to $10,000 Gold
Victor Dima, Treasury Manager at Tavex Romania, emphasizes that market fluctuations are a natural part of the cycle. “Nothing rises indefinitely. After strong and rapid increases, corrections are completely natural and even healthy,” he stated. He notes that a 10% correction following a more than 100% annual increase is a normal market reaction.
Despite recent dips, the price of gold remains significantly higher than it was a year ago, indicating a sustained long-term trend. Dima advises that gold is not a speculative instrument, requiring a fundamental understanding of market forces and a long-term investment horizon – at least five years. “It is in these moments of high volatility that the difference between an investment and an emotional decision is seen,” he added.
Dima highlights the continued purchasing activity of central banks and large institutional investors as a key driver, suggesting that individual investors should avoid hasty decisions based on short-term price swings. He forecasts that gold could surpass the psychological threshold of $10,000 per troy ounce before the end of the current cycle.
U.S. Coin Shops Face Influx of Sellers, Impose Limits
The surge in gold prices has led to a significant influx of sellers at U.S. Coin shops. However, refineries are struggling to keep up with the volume of metal being offered, leading some shops to limit the amount they will purchase from individual sellers.
Jarret Niesse, President of Precious Metal Refining Services in Chicago, stopped buying old silver in October when prices exceeded $50 per ounce, triggering a rush of people trading in silverware and other silver items. Refineries, which further refine the metal before exporting it to Asian markets, have also halted purchases due to capacity constraints.
Tom Spoerl, manager at Rick’s Olde Gold in Madison, explained that limiting purchases allows them to serve more customers and provide funds for essential expenses like tax payments and medical bills. Steel of HSBC noted the importance of avoiding debt or credit financing when dealing with precious metals, stating, “You don’t want to own metal and finance it for an indefinite period.”
Gold Price Rebounds in Romania
Data from the National Bank of Romania (BNR) shows that the price of gold reached nearly 690 lei on , an increase of over 13 lei from . While slightly below the peak of 700.6082 lei reached the previous week, it remains significantly higher than the beginning of the year. The historical record was set on , at 755.1450 lei.
Despite a sharp decline of nearly 20% from its recent highs earlier in the month, analysts at eToro suggest that the underlying fundamentals for gold remain intact. They attribute the initial drop to technical factors and excessive leverage, rather than a fundamental shift in the market.
Central Banks Expected to Purchase 800 Tons of Gold in 2026
eToro analysts point to continued central bank demand, with approximately 800 tons of purchases expected in 2026, as a key supporting factor. JP Morgan forecasts that the price of gold will reach $6,300 per ounce by the end of the year. The firm notes that investor and central bank demand averaged approximately 750 tons per quarter in 2025, exceeding the historical level needed to support higher prices.
However, analysts caution that short-term price volatility is likely to persist until selling pressure subsides. Following the significant decline, the price of gold rebounded by over 6% in a single day.
Silver also experienced significant volatility, closing January with a 17% gain after a massive 26.8% drop in one session – an unprecedented event since 1980. While silver benefits from its dual role as a safe haven and an industrial material, it is considered more fragile than gold following its speculative surge.
According to eToro’s Retail Investor Beat survey, 48% of global individual investors and 53% of Romanian individual investors hold gold in their portfolios. Over half of global investors and 61% of Romanian investors believe the price of gold will increase in 2026. EToro analysts advise investors to remain patient and wait for clearer evidence that excessive leverage and speculation have dissipated before taking action, and to adhere to their established trading strategies.
