Gold Rush Reversal: How Trump’s Election Bombshell Sent Global Gold Prices into a Tailspin
When Donald Trump becomes US President, which Vietnamese industry groups will benefit?; Gasoline prices are forecast to rebound after 3 consecutive declines
– Gold price: World gold price and 99.99 gold plummeted after Mr. Trump won the election
World gold prices plummeted, pulling the price of 99.99 gold rings of all kinds down from the mark of 88 million VND/tael.
At 3:00 p.m. on November 6, right after the results of the US Presidential election with Donald Trump winning, the gold price had unexpected developments.
Many investors said that gold prices are “plunging without stopping” when in the international market, the precious metal dropped more than 20 USD/ounce to 2,724 USD/ounce.
Gold prices dropped sharply after many days of standing at a high mark around 2,740 – 2,745 USD/ounce. Profit-taking pressure also appeared when gold prices “turned around” and plummeted.
Due to the influence of world prices, the price of 99.99 gold rings of all kinds also extended a series of consecutive decreases in recent days. SJC Company listed gold ring prices at only 86.4 million VND/tael purchased, 87.9 million VND/tael sold, down 300,000 VND compared to the morning and a total decrease of 600,000 VND/tael compared to yesterday. .
If calculated from the highest mark of gold ring price set at 89.5 million VND last week, each tael of gold ring has “evaporated” by more than 1.5 million VND/tael.
The price of gold rings also has a difference between businesses. PNJ Company sells gold rings for 88.2 million VND/tael; DOJI anchored at a higher level of 88.45 million VND/tael while Mi Hong Company sold at 88 million VND/tael…
Meanwhile, SJC gold bar prices continued to maintain a high level of around 87 million VND/tael purchased, 89 million VND/tael sold, unchanged from yesterday. This development causes SJC gold bar price to be far behind the 99.99 gold ring price.
Previously, some analyzes said that if Donald Trump became President of the United States, gold prices would continue to increase, but after the election results were announced, they showed opposite fluctuations. Many investors expressed surprise when world gold prices plummeted.
– When Donald Trump becomes US President, which Vietnamese industry groups will benefit?
According to Mr. Nguyen The Minh, Director of Personal Customer Analysis of Yuanta Vietnam Securities Company, when it comes to how Donald Trump’s rise to the US presidency affects Asia, a number of factors need to be considered. The most important are as follows:
The President’s intervention policy towards the US Federal Reserve (Fed):
Mr. Donald Trump’s view is that he wants to intervene in the Fed’s monetary policy. Mr. Trump is also a supporter of a sharp reduction in the USD basic interest rate. The advantage is that under Mr. Trump, the US economy will likely recover very strongly thanks to US monetary policy decisions.
When the US economy grows stronger, with its position as one of the countries exporting the most goods to the US, Vietnam will benefit. Export enterprises such as seafood, textiles, wood, and stone will likely be the biggest beneficiaries, in addition, the logistics industry…
However, we also need to be careful with the scenario where tariffs will increase sharply under Donald Trump. Some countries with a high export proportion like Vietnam will also be affected to a certain extent. The extent of the impact depends on the future tax rate.
Policy for the energy industry:
Mr. Donald Trump promotes the use of fossil energy, that is, oil and gas. In that case, industry groups such as oil and gas services and petroleum will benefit.
From the end of 2023 until now, oil prices have decreased because the whole world is supporting electric vehicles. Although there is tension in the Middle East, because of the rising trend in favor of electric vehicles and weaker oil consumption, oil prices have not increased sharply.
Of course, saying that does not mean that Mr. Trump does not support clean energy, but he seems to give more priority to fossil energy.
– Latest reaction of commodity markets after the preliminary results of the 2024 US presidential election
Prices of crude oil, metals and agricultural products all decreased in the trading session on November 6, amid the rise of the USD and candidate Donald Trump achieving 270 electoral votes in the US Presidential election.
Oil and soybean prices fell about 1.5% this session, while copper prices in the Asian market fell more than 2% due to pressure from the rise of the USD. However, the price of gold and other precious metals went sideways.
Specifically, on the afternoon of November 6, in the Singapore market, oil prices decreased by 2%, after two consecutive sessions of increase. The reason is that the USD increased sharply after the preliminary results of the US Presidential election and US crude oil reserves increased higher than expected. Oil prices are also under pressure due to concerns that the tariff war under Mr. Trump will weaken global economic growth. Brent oil price fell 1.17 USD (1.5%) to 74.36 USD/barrel, while US WTI crude oil price fell 1.11 USD (1.5%) to 70.88 USD/barrel .
In addition, signals of weak demand also weighed on Asian oil prices on November 6, after data from the American Petroleum Institute showed that US crude oil inventories increased more strongly than forecast.
However, global oil supply may also be disrupted if the Trump administration continues to tighten sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, currently exporting about 1.3 million barrels per day.
The USD is heading for its strongest one-day gain since March 2020 against other major currencies as financial transactions based on Mr. Trump’s policy impact forecast are activated.
Mr. Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said: “This is the initial reaction of the commodity market to the preliminary results of the US election, with the advantage favoring the former President. President Donald Trump. However, other media organizations have not yet officially recognized his victory. Mr. Hansen said that if Mr. Trump is elected for a second term, the US may impose more taxes on Chinese goods China, this is detrimental to metals because China is a large consumer of commodities such as copper, iron ore and steel.
– Foreign investors net sold nearly 10,000 billion VND on HOSE in October, Gemadept entered the billion USD capitalization group
In October, Gemadept Joint Stock Company (code GMD) entered the group of enterprises with a capitalization of more than billion USD.
According to market data published by the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HOSE), as of October 31, 2024, on HOSE there are 40 enterprises with a capitalization of more than 1 billion USD, including 02 enterprises with Capitalization of over 10 billion USD is Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (Vietcombank – code VCB) and Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BIDV – code BID).
Notably, in the October list, ranked 40th is Gemadept Joint Stock Company (code GMD) replacing No Va Real Estate Investment Group Joint Stock Company (Novaland – code NVL) in the business group. with a capitalization of billion USD in the list in August. In September there were only 39 businesses with a capitalization of more than 1 billion USD and neither of these two businesses were named.
Gemadept entered the list of enterprises with a capitalization of more than 1 billion USD for the first time since April when its stock price increased. After the stock price dropped sharply from more than 70,000 VND/share to more than 60,000 VND/share, causing GMD to fall out of the billion-dollar enterprise capitalization rankings, GMD’s stock price has recovered, bringing this enterprise back to normal. rejoined the group of businesses with billion USD capitalization in October.
Khang Dien Housing Investment and Trading Joint Stock Company (code KDH) also appeared on this list in July.
According to HOSE data, at the end of the last trading session of October 2024, the VN-Index reached 1,264.48 points, VNAllshare reached 1,324.21 points and VN30 reached 1,338.60 points. Compared to the end of September 2024, VN-Index, VNAllshare, and VN30 all decreased slightly, 1.82%, 1.52% and 1.03% respectively.
For industry indexes, most indexes decreased compared to the previous month. The three industry indexes that decreased the most were the energy index (VNENE) down 5.23%, the real estate index (VNREAL) down 3.12% and the consumer staples index (VNCOND) down 2. 80%. Only two industry indexes increased: the health care index (VNHEAL) and the information technology index (VNIT), increasing by 3.48% and 0.76% respectively; in which VNHEAL continues to maintain a good increase in points.
Regarding market liquidity in October, the average trading volume of shares reached more than 625 million shares/day with an average transaction value of more than 15,951 billion VND/day; corresponding to a decrease of 2.79% in volume but an increase of 0.21% in value compared to September 2024.
Covered warrants (CW) in October recorded an improvement compared to the previous month. The average trading volume reached more than 55.19 million CW/day with an average transaction value of 48.35 billion VND/day; corresponding to an increase of 13.65% in volume and an increase of 46.55% in value compared to September 2024.
The average trading volume of ETF certificates reached more than 3.6 million ETFs/day with an average trading value of more than 95.58 billion VND/day, corresponding to a decrease of 2.61% in volume but an increase of more than 15%. % of transaction value compared to September 2024.
The total transaction value of foreign investors in October 2024 reached over 79,771 billion VND, accounting for more than 10.87% of the total transaction value of the entire market. Foreign investors made net sales during the month with a value of more than 9,988 billion VND.
As of October 31, 2024, HOSE has 476 stock codes listed and traded, including 394 stock codes, 04 closed fund certificate codes, 16 ETF fund certificate codes and 62 guaranteed warrant codes. with a total volume of listed securities reaching more than 167.53 billion securities. The stock capitalization value on HOSE reached more than 5.19 million billion VND, equivalent to 50.85% of GDP in 2023 (GDP at current prices), accounting for more than 94.16% of the total capitalization value of listed stocks worldwide. market.
– Gasoline prices are forecast to rebound after 3 consecutive declines
During today’s adjustment period, November 7, domestic gasoline prices may increase again, an increase of about 250 – 400 VND/liter, depending on the type.
In the past week, gasoline prices in the Singapore market have tended to increase again, an increase of about 2% compared to a week ago. Updated as of November 5, the price of 92 gasoline in the Singapore market is being traded at 84.5 USD/barrel, while the price of 95 gasoline increased to 90 USD/barrel.
A representative of a gasoline business in Hanoi predicted that during the adjustment period on November 7, domestic gasoline prices may increase again, an increase of about 250 – 400 VND/liter, depending on the type.
This person also predicted that oil prices may increase sharply in tomorrow’s adjustment period, an increase of 500 – 800 VND/liter, depending on the type. In case the Ministry of Finance – Industry and Trade decides to use the Petroleum Stabilization Fund (BOG), gasoline prices may increase slightly.
If the gasoline price adjustment is as predicted, this will be the first period of upward adjustment after 3 consecutive periods of decrease. However, gasoline prices have remained low over the past 3 years.
In the most recent operating period on October 31, the executive agency decided to reduce 290 VND/liter, to 19,400 VND/liter; RON 95 gasoline decreased by 390 VND/liter, to 20,500 VND/liter. Meanwhile, diesel price increased by 90 VND/liter to 18,140 VND/liter; Kerosene increased by 260 VND/liter, to 18,830 VND/liter. Fuel oil increased by 240 VND/kg, to 16,460 VND/kg.