GOP strategist says Trump has hit the dreaded ‘Velcro’ phase

Political strategist Mike Murphy suggests that President Donald Trump has reached a critical tipping point in public perception, transitioning from a figure who could deflect most criticisms to one where negative narratives now adhere more readily. Murphy, who has worked with figures including John McCain, Mitt Romney, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and Jeb Bush, describes this shift as a move from “Teflon Trump” to “Velcro Trump.”

The central thesis of Murphy’s analysis is that there is a specific threshold of public approval—roughly the 30 to 40 percent range—where a politician’s perceived immunity to scandal or failure vanishes. According to Murphy, once a leader’s approval drops to these levels, the public becomes predisposed to view them as incompetent, making it significantly easier for new failures to be attributed to the leader’s personal shortcomings.

Speaking with Bulwark podcaster Tim Miller, Murphy explained the psychological mechanism behind this shift in public sentiment.

“There’s kind of a Velcro effect when you start getting down to the 40 percent — let alone 30s—in approval. Then everything’s your fault because people are already sold on the belief that you’re just a screw up.”

Mike Murphy

Murphy argues that when approximately two-thirds of the population believes a president is unfit for the job, even unrelated negative events are blamed on the administration. He noted that in such an environment, something as random as five days of thunderstorms could be attributed to the president, as the public is already primed to believe that the leader is responsible for negative outcomes.

Historic Polling Lows

The strategist points to polling data indicating that Trump’s approval ratings have reached historic lows. Murphy notes that these figures have fallen below the floors established by other unpopular presidents, including Jimmy Carter and those who served during the onset of the Great Depression.

This decline in support is significant because it begins to erode the loyalty of Trump’s most committed bloc of grievance voters. While this group has previously remained largely immune to displays of hate or perceived racism, Murphy suggests that extreme polling lows force even the most loyal supporters to reconsider their position when faced with tangible economic pressures.

Specifically, Murphy argues that voters are now taking inventory of their grocery and gas prices. This economic scrutiny can transform previously irritating issues—such as unpopular ballrooms or conflicts involving Iran—into infuriating ones that remain at the forefront of the voter’s mind.

The Factor of Age

Beyond economic and political failures, Murphy identifies the president’s age as a factor that is becoming increasingly prominent. He argues that while there has been discussion regarding Trump’s 80th birthday, the reality is that he has already been 80 for a year and is now entering his 81st year.

“The birthday is the last day of that year, like you’re a one-year-old means you’ve been one for a year, so he’s been 80 for a year and we’re going into 81 now. And the crazy old man stuff is really out there and becoming a thing.”

Mike Murphy

Murphy suggests that these perceptions of age and cognitive decline are now contributing to the “Velcro” effect, as they provide another layer of criticism that the public is now more willing to accept as truth.

Strategic Implications for Democrats

From a strategic standpoint, Murphy believes this shift provides a significant opening for Democratic opponents. He asserts that because Trump is no longer “Teflon,” Democrats will find it much easier to deploy messaging that sticks. As long as they maintain an offensive strategy, Murphy believes their messages will resonate more effectively with a public that is no longer predisposed to ignore or excuse the president’s stumbles.