Gorton & Denton By-Election: Greens Challenge Labour as Reform Threat Looms
Polls have opened in a closely contested by-election in Gorton and Denton, a constituency in south-east Manchester, with the outcome potentially posing a significant challenge to the leadership of Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer. The contest is shaping up to be a three-way battle between Labour, the Green Party, and Reform UK, and is being described as one of the most unpredictable in recent years.
The Green Party, led nationally by Zack Polanski, is claiming to be neck and neck with Reform UK in the race to overturn Labour’s existing 13,000-vote majority. Polanski has accused Labour of deliberately attempting to split the left-leaning vote, arguing that a Green victory would be “existential” for Starmer’s position. “It’s looking neck and neck between the Green party and Reform,” he stated, adding that Labour is “way, way behind” and not genuinely in contention.
Labour’s strategy of urging voters to back Angeliki Stogia, their candidate, rather than the Greens, has drawn comparisons to the party’s unsuccessful campaign in the Caerphilly by-election in October 2025. In that instance, Labour repeatedly warned voters that only they could defeat Reform, a message that ultimately failed as Plaid Cymru secured victory.
The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Andrew Gwynne in January, who stepped down amidst an investigation into offensive messages he sent within a WhatsApp group of local Labour figures. Gwynne had previously held the seat for Labour.
The stakes are high for Starmer, with a defeat potentially piling further pressure on his leadership. Experts suggest that finishing third behind both Reform UK and the Green Party would be particularly damaging, signaling a failure of his strategy to broaden Labour’s appeal beyond its traditional base. Professor Will Jennings of the University of Southampton described such an outcome as “terminal” for the current approach at Number 10.
Conversely, a Labour victory would “staunch that sense of inevitability of the end of Starmer,” Jennings added, and could represent a turning point for a government currently trailing Reform UK by eight percentage points in national polls. However, any relief for Starmer is expected to be short-lived, with significant losses anticipated for Labour in upcoming local and devolved elections scheduled for ten weeks’ time.
The campaign has not been without controversy. During a visit to the constituency on Monday , Starmer criticized the Green Party’s proposal to legalise drugs, claiming it would lead to an increase in drug use in public spaces. Polanski responded by accusing Starmer of “spoiler behaviour” and suggested that Labour’s focus on attacking the Greens indicated a lack of confidence in their own chances of winning.
Polanski also condemned a Labour attack advert on social media that depicted a green syringe alongside the words “Heroin, crack cocaine, spice. Green party says YES,” describing it as a “new low” and a “last desperate gasp” from a struggling Labour government.
Standing for Reform UK is Matt Goodwin, an academic and presenter for GB News, who has faced scrutiny over his past comments regarding women, Muslims, and British citizenship. Hannah Spencer, a Trafford councillor and plumber, is representing the Green Party. Labour’s candidate, Angeliki Stogia, is a local councillor.
The outcome of the Gorton and Denton by-election is being closely watched as a barometer of the shifting political landscape in the United Kingdom. The result, expected to be declared around on Friday , could have significant implications for the future direction of British politics and the prospects of the major parties as the country moves closer to a general election.
The by-election follows a similar contest in Runcorn and Helsby last May, where a split vote on the left allowed Reform UK to win by a narrow margin of just six votes, highlighting the potential for tactical voting to play a decisive role in the outcome.
Nearly 80% of voters in Gorton and Denton backed a party on the left at the 2024 general election, suggesting that the constituency has a strong tradition of supporting progressive policies. However, the current political climate, marked by economic uncertainty and growing public dissatisfaction with the main parties, could create an opportunity for Reform UK to make inroads in a seat that has historically been considered a Labour stronghold.