Green Electricity Showdown: Why 2 Options Can’t Compete with 3-1 on Price

Regarding the dynamics and ecology of the global offshore wind energy market, Xu Naiwen lamented that Asia is quite far from Europe, the birthplace of offshore wind power When the Russia-Ukraine war caused many European countries to restart or accelerate the construction of wind farms, the Netherlands suddenly opened 10GW, the United Kingdom will open 20GW, and Germany will open 30GW The capacity of European offshore wind installations is increasing rapidly at this rate, which is actually quite detrimental to the construction of offshore wind farms in Asia. .

In fact, for many offshore wind energy suppliers such as international system manufacturers and shipbuilding manufacturers, Europe is a market they are very familiar with, just like their own kitchen. “Offshore wind is now a seller’s market. If you can’t finish your own market (you can’t take orders), why do you have to come all the way to Asia? Looking ahead to 2030, companies in Europe and the United States are facing the challenge of net zero emissions.

Xu Naiwen analyzed that there will still be inflation problems around the world next year If the supply of green electricity is not sufficient, the chance that green electricity prices will continue to rise will be much higher than the chance of falling. In fact, according to the currently known market quotation information, even if the restrictions on localization are relaxed and developers have more purchasing flexibility, the construction cost of CIO Jian Miao Er is still to be more expensive than the cost of Jian Miao Yi. “Foreign suppliers have suffered too many losses during the epidemic. As long as they have the opportunity to squeeze profits from orders, they will not be polite. This has nothing to do with whether localization policy Taiwan wind power is promoted or not!” Naiwen drew attention to the wind energy industry The key to rising costs.

During the interview, Xu Naiwen suddenly took a piece of paper, drew three lines on it, and then told this magazine that Taiwan’s government has given subsidies to enterprises’ electricity prices for a long time, causing Taiwan’s electricity prices to be lower than GDP or national income for a long time than Taiwan Philippines, Thailand, and even Some African countries are even lower. “CIP has a wind farm in the US that was launched around the same time as Jianmiao No. 1 wind farm. Because the US government provides some tax incentives, the construction cost is not necessarily that different, but the electricity produced by the US field can be sold for The price is just over NT$7, while the CPPA (corporate purchase and sale contract) signed by Jian Miao No. 1 is less than NT$6 wind farm, everyone should have an idea and is the CPPA reasonable!” Xu Naiwen said.

Xu Naiwen said that the cost of building a 3-2 wind farm will definitely be more expensive than the cost of 3-1 In business, the selling price of green power must reflect the cost changes, so the CPPA of 3-2 will definitely be higher than that of 3-1. In fact, if we look at it over time, no one can accurately predict when the cost of building wind farms will decrease However, in the short term, it is clear that the price of green energy will continue to rise. For enterprises, if they sign a 20 or 30 year contract at the current price of 3-1, which is a little less than 6 yuan, looking back, it may not necessarily be expensive for enterprises that need to buy green electricity Fe you will know that the green electricity you buy now is completely cost effective. Many companies want to wait and see if the price of green electricity comes down, but at some point they may be able to buy more expensive green electricity.

It is understood that more than 90% of the existing CPPA for Jianmiao No. 1 has been signed. Since only Jianmiao No. 1 of the existing 3-1 wind farms can be completed and connected to the grid in 2027, companies with large green power needs may only seek support from CIP before then . When asked if CIP would be sold at a higher price due to shortage of supply or higher prices, Xu Naiwen chose a straight shot and bluntly said “no”.

Xu Naiwen said that if only one wind farm in Jianmiao is completed and connected to the grid in the whole 3-1 period, we should be able to wait for the price or raise the price When the time comes , the electricity price will be 6.5 yuan. But CIP is a good fund manager, and we just hope we can earn the remuneration we deserve For large-scale infrastructure industries such as offshore wind, the IRR (internal rate of return) is generally around 9 to 10%. Green electricity is very valuable now When you (a company) want to buy it, CIP may have already sold it! However, the reality is that the current situation has not reached the point where companies will die if they don’t (don’t) buy, so companies have to make transactions immediately.