Gulf Water Systems: Redundancy and the Need for Continuity

The critical water infrastructure of the Gulf region, specifically its desalination systems, is currently facing strategic risks as conflict in the Middle East extends to everyday infrastructure. While these systems are engineered with layers of backup to ensure continuity, they rely on continuous operation to maintain stability.

Recent Iranian drone attacks in Kuwait have already targeted this infrastructure, damaging two desalination and power facilities and causing fires at two oil sites. Other locations, such as Fujairah in the UAE, have been identified as potentially exposed targets.

The Architecture of Desalination Resilience

Desalination technology is fundamental to the survival and growth of the Gulf states, where traditional groundwater and oasis systems were historically insufficient to support large populations. The region’s water security is built on two primary technological eras: early thermal desalination processes, such as multi-stage flash distillation introduced in the 1950s and 1960s, and modern membrane desalination using reverse osmosis.

Current systems are designed to absorb isolated disruptions. According to Rabee Rustum, a professor of water and environmental engineering at Heriot-Watt University Dubai, the desalination network in the Gulf is built with enough breathing room that the loss of a single plant does not result in an immediate loss of water at the tap.

However, this resilience has limits. While a single strike is unlikely to shut off the entire water supply, sustained or multi-site attacks would strain the system’s capacity far more quickly, potentially compromising the layers of redundancy intended to ensure supply continuity.

Strategic and Legal Implications

Water infrastructure is categorized differently than other utilities because it directly underpins civilian survival, public health, hospital functions, and basic sanitation. Because of this, targeting these facilities is viewed as a strategic move that carries significant legal and moral weight.

Water infrastructure is not just another utility. In places that depend on desalination, it underpins civilian survival, public health, hospital function, sanitation and basic state legitimacy.

Andreas Krieg, senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King’s College London

Andreas Krieg further explains that international humanitarian law provides special protection to civilian objects and those indispensable to the survival of the civilian population, meaning attacks on water systems may cross established red lines.

Broadening Infrastructure Targets

The targeting of desalination plants is part of a broader trend where infrastructure wars are expanding beyond traditional military bases and weapons. Strategic targets now include:

• Cloud networks and AI systems
• Energy systems and oil sites
• Water supply and desalination facilities

As these systems become integrated into the strategic landscape, the ability of a state to maintain its water security becomes synonymous with its national security. In extreme scenarios, countries in the region may be forced to activate alternative water sources to mitigate the fragility of their primary desalination networks.