Severe Thunderstorms Threaten Central and Eastern U.S.
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Millions are at risk as powerful storms bring high winds, large hail, and possible tornadoes.
Unseasonably warm weather has created conditions ripe for severe thunderstorms across the central and eastern United States. Nearly 175 million people are perhaps in the path of these storms,expected to develop Sunday and Monday.
March has already seen a higher-than-average number of tornado reports compared to the same period last year. Areas previously impacted by severe weather coudl face another round of thunderstorms. While this weekendS forecast may not be as extreme as previous events, the risk remains significant for millions.
The weekend will begin with temperatures more typical of late May or early June from the Plains to the East Coast, before a strong storm system and cold front move eastward across the country.
Timing and Location of the Storms
Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and hail are possible Saturday night, primarily from Kansas and Missouri to Iowa. However, the most widespread and hazardous severe weather threat is anticipated on Sunday as the storm reaches peak intensity.
A cold front stretching from the western U.S. to the South Plains will bring an end to the spring-like warmth in the eastern half of the country.The collision of cold air behind this front with warm, humid air ahead of it will fuel the development of powerful thunderstorms.
The storm Prediction Centre (SPC) has placed more than 25 million people under a Level 3 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms on sunday. Cities within this higher-risk area include Nashville,Indianapolis,and St. Louis. An additional 45 million people are under a Level 2 out of 5 risk in surrounding areas, including Dallas, Chicago, and Cleveland.
Storms are expected to begin Sunday afternoon from Illinois to eastern Texas, intensifying and expanding eastward Sunday night and overnight through much of the Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee valleys.
Potential Hazards
The SPC forecasts the possibility of hail larger than golf balls,damaging wind gusts,and tornadoes.
The atmosphere will be conducive to tornado formation, and some tornadoes could be strong, classified as EF2 or greater, and long-lasting, according to the SPC.
The risk is amplified by the fact that the strongest storms are likely to occur after nightfall. A 2022 study indicated that nighttime tornadoes are nearly twice as likely to be fatal as those that occur during the day.
Some storms may also produce heavy rainfall, leading to flash flooding in areas from the South to the West.
Tornado Activity This Year
Tornado activity has been elevated so far this year, even with the peak of severe weather season still weeks away. There have been approximately 300 tornado reports since the beginning of 2025, compared to 164 by the end of March 2024.
Onyl three years since 2010 have recorded more tornadoes in the first three months: 2023, 2017, and 2013.
Last year saw a significant increase in tornado activity after spring, continuing through December, with nearly 2,000 tornado reports in total. This was the second-highest number of registered tornado reports, surpassed only by 2017.
Looking Ahead to Monday
The threat of severe thunderstorms will continue into Monday. Storms from Sunday night could extend from the Appalachians to Louisiana and Mississippi on Monday morning.
While some storms may weaken during the morning hours, they are expected to re-intensify in the afternoon as they move eastward.
Thunderstorms could extend along the entire East Coast by Monday night. The SPC has placed more than 100 million people from the South to the Northeast under a Level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms.
Major cities from New Orleans to Boston are within this risk area, although the specific threats may vary by region.
The Northeast faces a greater risk of strong wind gusts compared to tornadoes and hail. Atmospheric conditions further south, from the Mid-Atlantic to the Gulf Coast, are more favorable for thunderstorms with all hazards, including hail and tornadoes.
The thunderstorms are expected to continue overnight, mainly from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast, before moving offshore into the Atlantic ocean on Tuesday morning.
Future Threats
Another threat of severe thunderstorms may develop quickly. The SPC is monitoring a large area from Texas westward for potential severe storms on Wednesday.
Severe Thunderstorms: What You Need to Know
What Areas are at Risk of Severe Thunderstorms?
Millions of people across the central and eastern United States are at risk from severe thunderstorms.The areas at risk include:
Sunday: More than 25 million people are under a Level 3 out of 5 risk, including cities like Nashville, indianapolis, and St. Louis. An additional 45 million are under a Level 2 out of 5 risk, including Dallas, Chicago, and Cleveland.
Monday: The threat continues into Monday, with over 100 million people from the South to the Northeast under a Level 2 out of 5 risk. Major cities from New Orleans to boston are included in this risk area.
What Hazards are Expected from These Severe Thunderstorms?
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) forecasts a variety of severe weather hazards:
Large Hail: Hail larger than golf balls is absolutely possible.
Damaging Winds: Strong wind gusts are expected.
Tornadoes: the atmosphere will be conducive to tornado formation, with some potentially being strong (EF2 or greater) and long-lasting.
Flash Flooding: Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding in certain areas.
What Makes This Severe Weather Event Especially Concerning?
Several factors amplify the risk:
Elevated Tornado Activity: Tornado activity has been higher in 2025 compared to the same period last year.
Nighttime Tornadoes: The strongest storms are likely to occur after nightfall.Studies show that nighttime tornadoes are nearly twice as likely to be fatal as those during the day.
What is the Timeline for These Severe Thunderstorms?
Saturday Night: Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from Kansas and Missouri to Iowa.
Sunday: The most widespread and hazardous severe weather threat is anticipated, with storms expected to begin in the afternoon from Illinois to eastern texas, intensifying and expanding eastward overnight.
Monday: The threat of severe thunderstorms continues, with storms potentially extending from the Appalachians to Louisiana and Mississippi in the morning and along the entire East Coast by night.
Wednesday: Another threat of severe thunderstorms may develop in a large area from Texas westward.
How Does This Year’s Tornado Activity Compare to Previous Years?
Tornado activity in the first three months of 2025 has been elevated:
| Year | Tornado Reports (through End of March) |
| — | — |
| 2023 | More tornadoes in the first three months|
| 2024 | 164 |
| 2025 | Approximately 300 |
This year’s activity has already surpassed last year’s numbers, with the peak of severe weather season still weeks away. this highlights the importance of staying informed and prepared as severe weather events can happen unexpectedly.
