Has India Lost Influence in the Iran War? Delhi’s Stakes in the New Geopolitical Shift

India’s shifting stance in the Iran conflict has left New Delhi’s regional influence under scrutiny, while Pakistan’s military leadership appears to have gained leverage in the shadow of escalating tensions, according to regional analysts and diplomatic sources.

New Delhi’s balancing act
India’s refusal to openly condemn Iran’s military actions in the ongoing conflict has drawn criticism from Western allies, including the U.S., while Pakistan’s military chief, General Asim Munir, has positioned Islamabad as a potential mediator. Analysts say New Delhi’s cautious approach reflects its deep economic ties with Iran—including oil imports and trade worth over $16 billion annually—while Pakistan’s military has leveraged its geopolitical proximity to Tehran to present itself as a neutral broker.

“India’s silence on Iran’s actions is not neutrality—it’s a calculated move to protect its economic interests,” said Rahul Bedi, a Middle East expert at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF). “Pakistan, meanwhile, has successfully framed itself as a voice of reason, even as its own military-industrial complex benefits from the instability.”

Pakistan’s military gains influence
General Munir’s public statements calling for de-escalation have been amplified by state media, contrasting with India’s more muted diplomatic responses. Sources in Islamabad say Munir’s outreach to Iranian officials—including a reported meeting with Iranian Defense Minister Mohammad Reza Ashtiani in early June—has strengthened Pakistan’s role in regional security talks.

“Pakistan’s military is using the Iran conflict to reinforce its narrative as a stabilizing force,” said Ayesha Siddiqa, a defense analyst at Quaid-i-Azam University. “This comes at a time when India’s strategic autonomy is being questioned by its own allies.”

U.S. pressure and India’s dilemma
The Biden administration has privately urged India to distance itself from Iran, threatening potential sanctions on Indian companies involved in oil trade. However, Indian officials have dismissed such warnings as “unrealistic,” citing New Delhi’s long-standing refusal to align with U.S. sanctions regimes.

“India’s position is clear: we will not sacrifice our economic partnership with Iran for political pressure,” an unnamed senior Indian diplomat told NDTV, confirming that no formal shift in policy is expected despite Western concerns.

What happens next?
With Iran’s military operations showing no signs of slowing, India’s reluctance to take a firm stance could further isolate it from global powers. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s military appears set to consolidate its influence, using the crisis to strengthen ties with Tehran while avoiding direct confrontation with Washington.

Analysts warn that if the conflict widens, India’s economic exposure to Iran could become a liability, particularly if the U.S. enforces secondary sanctions. For Pakistan, however, the crisis presents an opportunity to deepen its strategic footprint in the region—even if the long-term consequences remain uncertain.

Key figures in the story

• General Asim Munir: Pakistan’s army chief, who has positioned Islamabad as a mediator in the Iran conflict.
• Mohammad Reza Ashtiani: Iran’s defense minister, who met with Munir in June.
• Rahul Bedi: Middle East expert at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF).
• Ayesha Siddiqa: Defense analyst at Quaid-i-Azam University.
• $16 billion: Estimated annual trade between India and Iran, primarily in oil and gas.