Hezbollah Celebrates Ceasefire with Israel Amidst Political Weakness and Destruction in Lebanon

Hezbollah and Israel: A Fragile Ceasefire and its Aftermath

Lebanese people celebrated this week as a ceasefire with Israel came into effect, including supporters of Hezbollah. However, Hezbollah faces significant challenges. The militant group has been weakened politically and militarily due to the loss of key leaders and infrastructure.

Hezbollah agreed to the truce after over a year of conflict with Israel. In its initial days, the ceasefire was broken several times. However, large-scale Israeli bombings in Beirut, the Bekaa Valley, and southern Lebanon have not resumed. This situation allows Hezbollah to reorganize.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Hezbollah has been "sent back decades." Sources within Hezbollah claim they lost around 4,000 fighters and that Israel destroyed many of their weapons depots.

Assessment of Hezbollah’s Status

Hezbollah will need to analyze how Israel managed to strike such a heavy blow. Israeli intelligence infiltrated Hezbollah, leading to the destruction of thousands of radios and communication devices. Additionally, Israel pinpointed the locations of almost all significant leaders, resulting in their elimination.

Despite these losses, Hezbollah does not consider itself defeated. They still managed to launch rockets at Tel Aviv until the end and did not allow the Israeli military to advance deeply into southern Lebanon. Marina Calculli, a professor at Leiden University, noted that Hezbollah presents its survival as a victory.

Hezbollah lost its long-time leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who had shaped the group’s military and political identity for three decades. While his loss is significant, Calculli suggests Hezbollah can function without him due to its flexible and decentralized structure. Naim Qassem has been appointed as his successor. The group may be weaker than it was after the 2006 war with Israel, but it is still active.

Hezbollah is also a critical part of Lebanese society, functioning as a political party, providing social services, and holding local offices.

Destruction and Human Cost

After months of violence, the Lebanese population is finding some relief. At least 3,700 people have died, and over one million have fled. The Israeli military struck civilian infrastructure, resulting in extensive destruction of homes, shops, and schools. Estimates indicate the damage will cost billions to repair.

With the ceasefire, residents are returning to the south, but challenges remain. Hezbollah is expected to withdraw from the south, allowing the Lebanese army and international observers to take their place. However, many locals support Hezbollah, complicating this transition.

Arabist Leo Kwarten suggests that Hezbollah will avoid re-engaging in conflict in the immediate future. After the conflict began in October, Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel in support of Hamas and the Palestinian population in Gaza. They may have felt obligated to act due to their status but did not seek a direct confrontation with Israel.

Hezbollah was originally founded in the 1980s to resist Israeli occupation in southern Lebanon. Their involvement in the recent conflict has required them to adjust their strategies and demands.