Hezbollah & Israel Strikes: Policy & “Mean” Attacks
Leaving the Mission to Israel: A Hazardous Calculation
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The current stalemate – a frustrating deadlock between the Lebanese state and Hezbollah – presents a deeply concerning scenario. Increasingly, the most likely outcome isn’t a proactive resolution, but a passive handover of duty to Israel. This isn’t about a formal agreement, a shadowy conspiracy hatched between parties. Instead, it’s a chilling prospect of “objective sharing” – where Israel effectively resumes, and even expands, its role in policing and suppressing Hezbollah’s activities.
The Dual intransigence fueling the Risk
For too long, Lebanon has been paralyzed by internal divisions. The Lebanese state’s inability to assert its authority, coupled with Hezbollah’s unwavering commitment to its own agenda, has created a dangerous vacuum. This dual intransigence isn’t just a political problem; it’s a security risk that’s rapidly escalating.
We’re seeing a situation where neither side is willing to compromise, leaving the door open for external actors to dictate the terms. And in this case, that actor is Israel.
how Israel Could Step In
What would this “objective sharing” look like in practice? It’s a disturbing, but plausible, scenario.
Increased Air Strikes: We could see the Israeli Air Force escalating its strikes, targeting not just military infrastructure, but also the social environments where Hezbollah operates – in the south, the suburbs of Beirut, and the Bekaa Valley. These strikes would likely be far more intense and widespread then what we’re currently witnessing. Expanded Assassination Campaign: “Mossad,” Israel’s intelligence agency, could broaden its policy of assassinations, moving beyond targeting solely the military wing of Hezbollah. This could include targeting political figures, financiers, or anyone perceived as a threat to Israeli security. This has been an ongoing, low-level operation since the ceasefire, but could dramatically increase in scope.
* resumption of the Weapons Debate – on Israel’s Terms: A weakened Hezbollah, facing sustained pressure, might be forced to reconsider its arsenal. However, this debate wouldn’t be driven by Lebanese national interests, but by the conditions imposed by Israel.
The Dangerous Bet on a Weaker Hezbollah
Some are openly betting that this is the desired outcome – a scenario where Hezbollah is substantially weakened, allowing for a different kind of political landscape in Lebanon. But this is a dangerous gamble.
A destabilized Hezbollah doesn’t necessarily equate to a stable Lebanon. It could, in fact, create a power vacuum that leads to even greater instability and violence. Moreover, relying on Israel to police Lebanon’s internal affairs is a profound abdication of sovereignty.
What’s at Stake?
The stakes are incredibly high. Allowing Israel to take the lead on this issue isn’t a solution; it’s a surrender.It’s a tacit admission that Lebanon is incapable of managing its own security.
This isn’t just about Hezbollah; it’s about Lebanon’s future. it’s about preserving its sovereignty, its stability, and its ability to chart its own course. The current path, characterized by inaction and internal division, is leading Lebanon down a dangerous road – one that could ultimately result in the loss of control over its own destiny.
Disclaimer: The opinions in the article do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al-Jazeera.