Nevada’s Crucial Role in the US Presidential Election

The situation in Nevada is not simple ahead of the US presidential ‍election⁤ in November. When President ⁢Joe Biden was the⁣ Democratic presidential candidate, former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, seemed to ‍be solidifying his victory ⁢by​ gaining an advantage in Nevada opinion polls. ⁣However, Vice President Kamala Harris, who took over the Democratic presidential nomination⁤ from President⁤ Biden in July, succeeded in catching up with her rival.

Nevada has 6 electoral votes, the ‍lowest among the major swing states. Despite this, the state has traditionally been a ‘barometer’ for ⁣the flow of US ​presidential elections. In the⁤ past 12 presidential ‌elections, the candidate ⁤who ⁣won in ‍Nevada entered the White House 10 times. If we expand‍ the scope⁣ since 1900, the candidate who won in the Nevada ​presidential‌ election was elected with a 90% probability.

Both Democratic⁣ and Republican candidates​ are putting effort into Nevada, particularly​ in increasing the ‌real income of service industry⁤ workers⁣ through a ⁣’tip exemption’ measure. Former President Trump⁣ visited Las Vegas, Nevada’s largest city, in June and announced for the⁣ first time that he would abolish the income tax on ⁢tips. In response, Vice President Harris, the Democratic presidential ⁤candidate, countered ‌at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas‌ in August by saying that she would significantly increase the minimum wage ⁢in ‌addition to the⁤ tip exemption measure.

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According to the current polls, the two‍ candidates are currently tied 1-1 in Nevada. Vice President Harris was able to narrow the gap ⁤with ⁤former​ President⁣ Trump in Nevada, and in the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll ​conducted from the 23rd to the 26th of ⁢last month, she was 4%p ⁢ahead of‍ former President Trump‌ (46%) with a 50% ‍approval rating.

Nevada Hispanic voters, who had held back ‌on supporting President Biden, have opened their hearts to the ⁣Democratic Party again after the change in candidates. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Hispanics make​ up 30% of Nevada residents, the ​second largest group after whites (45%).

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Nevada’s high unemployment rate and skyrocketing housing ⁤prices are‌ also considered key variables that will influence public sentiment. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Nevada’s unemployment⁢ rate in ⁢July was 5.4%, the highest among the 50 U.S. states (average 4.3%).

In addition, as residents of nearby California, struggling with high prices, are moving to Nevada, Nevada’s home prices in ‍July rose 6.1% year-on-year, according to‍ a survey ​by Zillow, a U.S. real estate information company, which significantly exceeded the U.S. average increase rate (4.2%) during the same period.

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