The confluence of geopolitical instability and escalating climate risks is creating a period of heightened global uncertainty, prompting warnings from military leaders and risk analysts alike. While comparisons to pre-war eras are fraught with peril, a consistent theme emerges: the next two to three years represent a critical window for potential large-scale conflict and systemic disruption.
General Sir Roly Walker, the new chief of the British Army, recently articulated a stark assessment, stating his troops need to double their “lethality” within three years and triple it by , preparing for potential war with Russia by . This call for increased military readiness reflects a growing concern within Western defense circles about the deteriorating security landscape, particularly in Eastern Europe. The assessment isn’t based on a prediction of inevitable conflict, but rather a recognition of the need to be prepared for a rapidly evolving threat environment.
This sense of urgency isn’t limited to the United Kingdom. The assessment echoes concerns voiced in the United States, suggesting a broader recognition of the increasing risk of large-scale industrial warfare. However, the nature of potential conflict is shifting. While traditional military confrontations remain a concern, the threat landscape now encompasses cyberattacks, disruptions to global communication networks – particularly undersea cabling – and attacks on maritime commerce. This suggests a move away from purely conventional warfare towards a more hybrid model of conflict, designed to destabilize and disrupt adversaries without triggering immediate, large-scale military escalation.
The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report highlights a world of growing divisions, with the outlook for the next two years being particularly alarming. The report identifies the risk of disinformation as the most concerning, underscoring the potential for manipulation and societal fragmentation. This aligns with the broader trend of increasing geopolitical polarization and the erosion of trust in institutions.
Beyond immediate security threats, the long-term implications of climate change are also contributing to global instability. The United Nations has set an ambitious target to ensure everyone on Earth is protected by early warning systems against extreme weather and climate change within five years – by . This initiative, spearheaded by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), acknowledges the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and the urgent need for adaptation and resilience. Currently, one-third of the world’s population, particularly in least developed countries and small island developing states, lacks coverage by these systems. In Africa, the situation is even more dire, with 60% lacking adequate warning systems.
The UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized the importance of investing in both adaptation and resilience, including the information needed to anticipate storms, heatwaves, floods, and droughts. This underscores the interconnectedness of climate security and traditional security concerns. Climate change acts as a threat multiplier, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities and increasing the risk of conflict and displacement.
Historically, empires have often fallen not through direct military defeat, but through internal decay and a failure to adapt to changing circumstances. A recent analysis draws parallels between the current geopolitical climate and the decline of past empires, including Rome, the Ottomans, and the British. The core lesson is that a belief in historical exemption – the assumption that one’s own power and institutions are somehow immune to the forces of history – can be a fatal flaw.
The next few years will likely be characterized by increased volatility and uncertainty. The convergence of geopolitical tensions, climate risks, and the potential for disruptive technologies creates a complex and challenging environment for businesses and policymakers. While predicting the future with certainty is impossible, the warnings from military leaders, risk analysts, and historians suggest a need for proactive planning, increased resilience, and a willingness to adapt to a rapidly changing world. The emphasis on preparedness, whether it be through increased military readiness or investment in early warning systems, reflects a growing recognition that the risks are real and the stakes are high.
For businesses, this translates into a need to stress-test supply chains, diversify markets, and invest in risk management capabilities. For policymakers, it requires a focus on strengthening international cooperation, addressing climate change, and building more resilient infrastructure. The period ahead demands a combination of strategic foresight, pragmatic action, and a healthy dose of humility.
